Riding
their first two-game win streak since September 7-9, with a day off between, the
St. Louis Cardinals have assured themselves of a winning season, their eighth in
the last nine seasons and 10th in Tony La Russa’s 13 years as
manager.
With
a victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the final game of their home series
on Thursday afternoon and a sweep over the visiting Cincinnati Reds Friday
through Sunday, the Cardinals can finish 86-76, ten games over .500.
Their high-water mark this season
was 14 games over, last achieved on August 27. The last time the Cardinals were
ten games over .500 was on September 11, as they lost the second of three home
games to the Chicago Cubs. Immediately after, the Cards embarked on a disastrous
2-7 road trip that put the final nails in their 2008 post-season
coffin.
In their unusual position of being
out of playoff contention for the second consecutive season, the question on the
table is what teams should Cardinals fans root for this weekend, other than
their own, of course?
Chicago?
Having already clinched both the
Central Division and the best record in the National League, the Cubs are what
they will be at the end of the regular season. They will enter the playoffs with
the home field advantage.
Given that, should the Cubs simply
be ignored until the playoffs begin?
Not necessarily. If Cardinals fans
want the Cubs to be the most tired they can be entering the post-season, they
should root for the Houston Astros and against the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers.
That means they should actually
want the Cubs to win this weekend, as incredible as that seems.
How’s that, you ask?
Houston?
With
their victory Wednesday night, the Astros are now 3.5 games behind the Brewers
and the Mets in the NL Wild Card race. Any combination
of Mets/Brewers wins or Astros losses totaling two would eliminate Houston from playoff
contention.
Yet, if
Houston can somehow pull at least within a half
game of the Wild Card lead to end the weekend, their unplayed third game in the
Hurricane Ike series against the Chicago Cubs will be required to be played at
Minute
Maid Park on Monday, September 29.
As Houston fans are painfully aware, the first two games of
the series were played at Milwaukee’s Miller Park on September 14-15. The “home” Astros
were swept, including suffering through Carlos Zambrano’s no-hitter in Game
One.
Houston
has their final four games at home, the series finale against Cincinnati on Thursday,
followed by three against the Braves this weekend.
Milwaukee?
The Brewers
need to keep winning to keep their Wild Card co-lead intact. After finishing
their current home series against Pittsburgh on
Thursday night, they travel to Chicago for the closing
weekend.
As noted above,
the Cubs have no reason to care about the outcome of these games, other than to
get ready for the post-season. Or do they?
I am sure even
without asking that the Cubs to a man don’t care if they have to entertain the
Wild Card Mets or the (division leader with the worst record) Dodgers to open
the first round.
On the other
hand, they surely don’t want to have to pick up their gear to travel to Houston
for a meaningless (to them) Ike game on Monday, only to head back home to host
the Divisional Series opener starting on Wednesday, October
1.
How do they
avoid that? One way is to make sure the Brewers keep winning, at least two
games, anyway. That would eliminate the Astros, making their tentative Monday
trip to Houston
unnecessary.
I am not
suggesting the Cubs should or will try to lose, but it does present an
interesting dilemma, doesn’t it?
My
priority
Even more than the 86 wins that
remain possible for the Cardinals and more than caring what happens to Chicago and Milwaukee, I
would like to see St. Louis make up their 1.5 game deficit in the standings
against the Astros in the final four days and escape the lower half of the NL Central, baseball's largest division with six teams.
That has been made more
difficult unless the Ike game is played.
Current course and speed, to
finish ahead of the Astros, the Cards will need to win at least two more than
Houston in each
of their final four scheduled games. The clubs cannot tie without the Ike game
to even their games played.
For example, if the Cards only go
2-2, the Astros would have to go 0-4. In that case, the Cardinals would finish
84-78 and Houston would end at 83-78, one-half game
back.
Yet, if the Ike game is needed and
the Astros would lose it, the Cardinals and Astros could tie if the Cardinals
win only one more game than Houston the rest of the way. That hill is very steep
as the Cardinals would need to run the table, going 4-0, and if the Astros
went 3-2 (including an Ike game loss), the two would end with identical 86-76
marks.
For this to happen, the Mets and
Brewers would need to keep losing so the Astros could stay in the hunt long
enough for the Monday game to be required – a very low odds scenario
indeed.
A conclusion (as opposed
to THE conclusion)
Of course, Cardinals fans will
always root for their team to win. As strange as it may sound, some may also
pull for the Cubs to win this weekend, knowing it could make their playoff run
more difficult.
If your DNA simply won’t allow
that, I understand completely. In that case, try rooting for the Brewers to lose
instead. That shouldn’t be nearly as difficult. After all, does anyone really
ever want to see Prince Fielder’s ample midriff exposed
again?
If you are ok with the Cards
tying the Astros and want the Cubs’ road to be as rocky as
possible, pull for the ‘Stros to stay in it long enough to require the Ike game
– and then lose. The Cards also need to go 4-0 the rest of the way.
In that scenario, the Astros and Brewers likely miss the post-season (pending any required tie-breaker games), the Cubs had to travel back and forth to Houston on Monday and the Cards and Astros tie.
Alternatively, if the Astros bow out earlier, the Cardinals could finish in third place
ahead of Houston.
That’s about the best a Cardinals
fan can hope for over the next five days.
Brian Walton can be reached via
email at brwalton@earthlink.net.
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