As most of the baseball world
knows by now, the Milwaukee Brewers used their open date on Monday to sack their
manager of nearly six seasons, Ned Yost. Despite the Brew Crew being tied for
the National League Wild Card with 12 games to go, they dropped four over the
weekend to their closest current rival in the standings, the Philadelphia Phillies.
With a September record of 3-11,
the Brewers seem poised to collapse again, as they did last season. Though they
ended with a winning record for the first time since 1992, Milwaukee missed the 2007
post-season despite having an 8 ½ game lead in June.
My biggest concern about Yost as a
manager was his questionable in-game decisions and seeming lack of control of
his club. Yet, current press attention seems most focused on his personality,
specifically his “tightness”.
The choice of that word,
tightness, got me thinking.
Generally, when a team is winning,
a manager’s intensity is often praised. Yet, when times are tough, that same
characteristic can be labeled as “tightness”, a term that has been used many
times to describe St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa, and rightfully so.
Not surprisingly, La Russa’s early
public comments seemed to place him among the Yost admiration society. After
all, perhaps he could see more than a little of himself in the younger man. In
fact, La Russa hand-selected Yost as one of his two All-Star Game coaches in
2005.
“Ned has been outstanding in his
first few years and will be for many years to come," gushed La Russa at the
time.
The Cardinal skipper did not
repeat the invitation when given the opportunity in 2007, however. There are
rumors that the relationship between the two is strained. Perhaps the emergence
of the Brewers as a bonafide NL Central Division contender was enough to do
it or maybe the beanball mess last season contributed.
As Cardinals fans know, the La
Russa years in St. Louis have been very productive. Since taking over the
reigns of the Cardinals in 1996, La Russa’s teams have won 1133 and lost 958
games, for a winning percentage of .542. The latter is better than franchise
icons Red Schoendienst (.522) and Whitey Herzog (.530).
La Russa’s St. Louis clubs have
amassed one world championship, two National League pennants, six first-place
finishes and made the playoffs a total of seven times in 12
seasons.
Yet, that tightness term continues
to stick in my head. With the help of statman Tom Orf, I decided to look at the
Cardinals September record under La Russa.
Certainly here in the final days
of the 2008 campaign, the club seems out of mess kits and “playing a hard nine”
simply does not look to be enough as the Cardinals are only slightly better than
the Brewers in September.
The fourth-place Cards have a 4-8
September record (.333) and are coming off being swept in an embarrassing manner
themselves, losing three straight to the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates. Next,
they limp into the home of another NL Central spoiler, Walt Jocketty’s and Dusty
Baker’s fifth-place Cincinnati Reds.
Cardinals September Record Under
La Russa
|
Sept. |
Sept. |
Sept. |
| Year |
Wins |
Losses |
Pct. |
| 2008 |
4 |
8 |
0.333 |
| 2007 |
13 |
18 |
0.419 |
| 2006 |
12 |
16 |
0.429 |
| 2005 |
13 |
13 |
0.500 |
| 2004 |
16 |
12 |
0.571 |
| 2003 |
13 |
13 |
0.500 |
| 2002 |
21 |
6 |
0.778 |
| 2001 |
17 |
5 |
0.773 |
| 2000 |
19 |
9 |
0.679 |
| 1999 |
10 |
15 |
0.400 |
| 1998 |
18 |
7 |
0.720 |
| 1997 |
10 |
16 |
0.385 |
| 1996 |
17 |
9 |
0.654 |
| 1996-2008 |
183 |
147 |
0.555 |
|
|
|
|
| 2003-2008 |
71 |
80 |
0.470 |
| 1996-2002 |
112 |
67 |
0.626 |
Overall, La Russa’s clubs have done
well in the final full month, posting a higher September winning percentage than
his clubs over the same complete seasons (.555 vs. .542). Looking further,
however, one can clearly see that record was amassed in the first half of his
St. Louis tenure, from 1996 through 2002, during which time they played
fantastic ball in September (.626).
The most recent six seasons tell a
much different story.
The Cardinals have won only 47% of their September
contests since 2002. That .470 mark compares most unfavorably to the Cardinals’
overall regular-season record of .552 since the start of
2003.
The last September during which
the Cardinals had a winning record was in the 105-win high watermark season of
2004. That also represents the only winning September for the club since
2002. To top it off, the Cards' September winning percentage is on track to decline for the fourth consecutive season.
I decided to delve deeper since
one might wonder if the Cardinals post-season position at the time could have
affected their late-season sense of urgency and therefore, their results. While
we cannot answer that with certainty, we can compare the
standings.
The next table notes the Cardinals
relative position in the standings, both as the month of September began as well
as when it ended each season. I noted either the size of the lead or how far the
Cardinals were behind in terms of number of games in the division as the month
started and closed.
Cardinals September 1 vs. October
1
|
Sept. |
Sept. |
Sept. |
1-Sep |
1-Sep |
1-Oct |
1-Oct |
| Year |
Wins |
Losses |
Pct. |
lead |
deficit |
lead |
deficit |
| 2008 |
4 |
8 |
0.333 |
|
11 |
|
TBD |
| 2007 |
13 |
18 |
0.419 |
|
2 |
|
7 |
| 2006 |
12 |
16 |
0.429 |
5 |
|
1.5 |
|
| 2005 |
13 |
13 |
0.500 |
14 |
|
11 |
|
| 2004 |
16 |
12 |
0.571 |
15.5 |
|
14 |
|
| 2003 |
13 |
13 |
0.500 |
1 |
|
|
3 |
| 2003-2008 |
71 |
80 |
0.470 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2002 |
21 |
6 |
0.778 |
4 |
|
13 |
|
| 2001 |
17 |
5 |
0.773 |
|
6 |
|
1 |
| 2000 |
19 |
9 |
0.679 |
8 |
|
9 |
|
| 1999 |
10 |
15 |
0.400 |
|
14.5 |
|
20.5 |
| 1998 |
18 |
7 |
0.720 |
|
21.5 |
|
19 |
| 1997 |
10 |
16 |
0.385 |
|
7 |
|
11 |
| 1996 |
17 |
9 |
0.654 |
|
2.5 |
6 |
|
| 1996-2002 |
112 |
67 |
0.626 |
|
|
|
|
The data shows that in five of the
seven early years (’96-’02), the Cardinals improved their position in the
standings, either increasing their lead (twice), taking over the lead (once) or
closing the gap between them and the first-place club (twice). Only twice in
those seven years did the Cardinals lose ground in
September.
The story is much different
recently. In every one of the five complete seasons starting in 2003, the
Cardinals have digressed during September. Three times their lead shrunk, in
one case, they lost their hold on first place (2003) and the other time, last season, they fell
further behind during the final full month.
One partial explanation could be
that in two of the recent years, 2004 and 2005, the Cardinals' leads were so
large that perhaps losing a few meaningless September games didn’t really
matter. Or did it?
There are a myriad of other
possibilities, from non-contributing minor league call-ups to poor late-season
acquisitions to an accumulation of injuries to a tired-out roster to yes, maybe even tightness.
Whatever the reasons for it, the
facts are clear. September has been most unkind to the Cardinals in recent years and
with half the month remaining, 2008 may certainly be a continuation of the
trend.
Brian Walton can be reached via
email at brwalton@earthlink.net.
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