With a
three-day break from regular season action across MLB, I thought it a good time
to review the stats of the 2008 St. Louis Cardinals, as a team and
individuals.
Overview
Resilient. Resiliency.
I don’t know about you, but I am
tired of these words being used to label the Cards. Yet there is something to be
said about their accuracy. The team has lost just seven series and split six
this season, yet has won 18 series, despite their only sweep having been in the
first week of the season. To top it off, they've had double-digit numbers of players on the disabled list pretty much the entire first half.
They’ve been on an even keel, with
only one win streak as long as five games – yes, during the first week of the
schedule. We have seen three runs of three losses each, including two in June,
yet this club has avoided getting too high or too low.
With a 53-43 (.552) record
overall, the team is in second place in the National League Central, 4.5 games
behind the only club in the league with a better record, the Chicago Cubs. The
Cards only spent a total of four days in third place prior to the
break.
The facts show the Cardinals are
slowly losing ground to the Cubbies. At the end of April, they were tied for
first and made it back to the same point during Memorial Day weekend. As May
ended, the Cards were 2.5 games out, the same place they would be one month
later.
The initial time the 2008
Cardinals hit the magic ten games over .500 milestone was on May 30, when their
record climbed to 33-23. They first reached 13 games over, their high-water
mark, on June 11, at 40-27.
It is likely not a coincidence
that their subsequent slip downward was concurrent with both interleague play
and the stay of Albert Pujols (right) on the 15-day disabled list.
Another way to look at it is that
since May 30, the Cardinals have been treading water at
20-20.
In the second
half, the Cardinals can improve their record in one important and seemingly
less-challenging manner by taking more victories at Busch Stadium. After winning
57.1% of their home contests in the first two years of the newest Busch (III),
this season, they are five games over .500 at home (26-21, .553), same as
on the road (27-22, .551).
Yet, can one be too concerned with
a club that is on pace to win 86 games this season? As a point of reference, it
has taken just 88 to 90 wins to capture the NL Wild Card berth in each of the
last three seasons and the average since 2000 is 91 victories. It is also worth
noting that three consecutive World Champions this decade (2002-2004) entered
the post-season via the Wild Card.
Team
hitting
With a .275 batting average, the
Cardinals trail only the Cubs in the National League. These players have shown a
fine batting eye, with the second-most walks in the league (372) and an on-base
percentage (.350) that is also #2.
The Cardinals hitters have the
fewest strikeouts in the circuit by a considerable margin. Their K total of 573
compares to the NL-average 657. They have only been shut out once all season.
The next closest teams have been blanked three times.
With the emergence of Ryan Ludwick
and Rick Ankiel (right), the team’s first pair of 20 home run hitters at the
break since the 2004 “MV3” season, the Cards rank sixth of 16 teams with 102
long balls. Their slugging mark of .429 is fifth-best.
Yet all is
not rosy. The Cardinals continue to bring too few of their many baserunners
home. Their total of 755 stranded is second-highest in the NL. They also ground
into double plays at a higher rate than any other NL club except Washington. With 89 GIDPs, the Cards are way
above the league average of 72.
Against good teams like the
Phillies, the Cardinals offense often seems to misfire. Over three games in the
City of Brotherly Love last week, they scored a total of only five runs.
Yes, two days later, the Cardinals hitters supposedly washed the concerns away
as they accumulated season highs in hits in a game with 22, extra base hits
(ten), including seven doubles, and tied for the most runs plated (11). Just
remember that was accrued against the worst staff in the NL, the
Pirates.
Yet as most St. Louis fans know,
despite all that offense, they still lost on Saturday night. That leads us
to…
Team
pitching
The Cardinals’ aggregate ERA has
steadily risen, to the point it is only eighth-best (4.18) in the NL. Looking at
the next set of numbers is telling. Only three clubs have allowed more hits and
just four more have yielded a higher opposing batting average than the Cards’
.269.
The organization’s “pitch to
contact” philosophy is never more visible than in the Cards’ NL-worst strikeout
total of 545. This compares to the league average of 651 and a best of 721
(Arizona).
The pitchers’ control is evident
in the low walk total of 297, which is third-least in a league that averages
331.
As many know, the starting
pitching has been the strength of the club in the first half. Their record of
40-23 (.635) is the tops in the NL, though their ERA is only 4.13, seventh-best
in the league. Nine different pitchers have started, with Kyle Lohse (right),
Braden Looper, Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Pineiro and Adam Wainwright having taken 85
of the 96 starts.
Even more fans are aware of the
bullpen struggles. The 20 losses taken by the members of the Cards pen is the
second-highest total in the league. They lead the entire major leagues in blown
saves with 22. (This is possible since there can be more than one blown save
opportunity per game, such as Saturday, when both Kyle McClellan and Chris Perez
failed in their respective chances to lock down a save.)
To make matters worse, the
Cardinals have let eight games get away in extra innings this year, while
winning only four (.333). None of the other 29 clubs in MLB have lost more extra
inning contests.
Team
fielding
Just this past week, there was a
very interesting discussion on our Message
Board as to the value of advanced defensive metrics. I must admit I have yet
to be convinced of their broad use, yet in a most traditional measurement,
fielding percentage, the Cards lead the National League at
.987.
Defensively-solid shortstop Cesar Izturis leads the team with errors, but has only eight.
With Chris Duncan’s first start of
the season in right field on Sunday, manager Tony La Russa made out his
85th different lineup combination in those first 96 games. Yet
despite the churn, more often than not, the great tinkerer seems to have
selected the right group of players to maximize his team’s chance of
winning.
Individual
hitters
Who could ever have predicted that
outfielder Ryan Ludwick would be an All-Star, let alone leading a team with
Albert Pujols on it in the following areas: runs (60), total bases (78), home
runs (21) and RBI (65). His slugging mark of .597 barely trails Pujols’
team-best .608.
Before you cut Albert too much
slack due to his DL stint, it should be noted that Ludwick has done his damage
in just 13 more at-bats than Albert to date. Of course, Pujols is no slouch,
hitting a robust .350, second-best in the NL, and is certainly well-positioned
to compete for the league batting crown. Due to a whopping 61 free passes issued
by opposing hurlers, Albert has an on-base mark of .466, second-highest in all
of MLB.
Showing less concern for the men
hitting behind Pujols has proven to be a bit more risky for the Cardinals
opponents as the season has progressed. Two batters next in the line-up are
emerging.
Ex-pitcher Ankiel has 20 long
balls and 50 RBI and is one of the hottest hitters in baseball since late June.
If he can maintain his average at .270, that would be a bonus. Off-season
addition Troy Glaus has chipped in 15 home runs and 59 RBI and very good defense
at the hot corner.
Two of the best stories on offense
are the club’s second and third-leading hitters. Switch-hitting second baseman
Aaron Miles (right) is batting .327 from the left and .299 from the right. His
.317 mark overall is just ahead of catcher Yadier Molina, quietly reaching his
offensive promise, batting a solid .312. Perhaps equally impressive are the
strikeout totals for these two. Miles has whiffed just 19 times in 224 at-bats
and Molina is even tougher with 14 Ks in 276 ABs.
Improving of late is Chris Duncan,
with his .255 batting average and nine RBI in his last 12 games. Second baseman
Adam Kennedy is hitting .280, but being overshadowed by Miles. Infielder Brendan Ryan is in a deep batting slump (4-for-46, .087) and has only one walk in the
last three weeks. Izturis is hitting just .236 but leads the club with eight
stolen bases. Reserve catcher Jason LaRue has contributed when called upon
(.242).
Individual
pitchers
The starters were called out
above, but it worth noting Wainwright’s 3.14 ERA prior to his finger injury
and Lohse’s 11 wins and 3.39 ERA. Where would the Cardinals be had they not
signed the then-unwanted Lohse in mid-March to a cut-rate one-year
deal?
Rookie lefty Jaime Garcia will
receive his first major league start this coming Sunday, trying to temporarily
fill the gap left by Wainwright. Past nominees included Mitchell Boggs, Mike Parisi, Mark Mulder and Brad Thompson.
The bullpen. Ah, the bullpen. The
relief corps in aggregate has an ERA of 4.29, which ranks 13th among
the 16 NL teams. Opposing hitters are teeing off against them at a .267 clip,
tied for dead last in the league with the lowly Pirates.
The implosion of then-closer Jason Isringhausen (inset right) was well-chronicled earlier this season. Much if not
all of the progress made since his return may have been sent over the PNC Bank Park wall via a three-run home run by Nate
McLouth Saturday night. Izzy’s ERA is 5.97, which is actually an improvement
from the 8.00 mark he carried when he left the team for a month between mid-May
and mid-June.
The interim closer, Ryan Franklin,
continues to concern me. Overall, nothing looks particularly amiss as he is
12-of-16 in save opportunities with a 3.43 ERA. Yet, Franklin has had two
distinct seasons in one. As a set-up man, his ERA was 1.50. Since assuming the
closer’s role, the 35-year-old has yielded 12 earned runs in 19 innings over 21
appearances for a closer’s ERA of 5.68. That is Izzy
territory.
Rookies McClellan and recent
arrival Perez have been contributors, with McClellan especially standing out
(2.94 ERA), though the two may become overexposed in the second half. With a
team-high 45 appearances, McClellan’s ERA has grown each month, from April’s
1.72 to 2.92 in May to 3.38 in June and finally to 4.50 in July so far. Neither
seems ready to become a big-league closer.
39-year-old Russ Springer has
already pitched in one game for every year he has been on earth. The most
dependable reliever in the pen this season with a 2.17 ERA is on pace for 66
appearances, the third highest in a career that runs all the way back to
1992.
The left side of the pen, even
more important with no left-handed starter sticking in the rotation to date, has
been held down by a pair of inconsistent veterans - Randy Flores (5.12 ERA),
currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A, and journeyman Ron Villone (4.98
ERA). This continues to be an area needing major
improvement.
The
schedule
The Cardinals had better get
rested during the break, because they are scheduled to play 18 straight days
before another open date, on August 4. They begin the second half with a pair of
four-game home series against San
Diego and the resurgent Milwaukee Brewers.
Following the homestand, they hit
the road for seven leading up to the July 31st trade deadline, with
three against the Mets and four vs. Atlanta.
Brian Walton can be reached via
email at brwalton@earthlink.net.
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