When
baseball Hall of Famers gather at Cooperstown,
New
York for
their annual post-induction banquet next summer, the most appropriate entrée for
the menu will be goose with wild rice -- that
is, a really large, muscular goose, fattened by a combination of steroid
injections and growth hormone.
Such
a menu will be dictated because, although the results of the 2008 Cooperstown
voting by the Baseball Writers Association of America (to be announced at 2:00
P.M. Eastern time on Tuesday, January 8) should confirm the elections of relief
pitcher Goose Gossage and outfielder
Jim Rice, the outcome will be
overshadowed by the fact that the Hall of Fame process itself will be mired ever
more deeply than before in baseball’s current performance-enhancement
debacle.
Gossage,
who likely will receive the most votes on this year’s ballot, and Rice
-- both
of whom were integral to the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry of the mid 1970s through
early 1980s --
appear to be the only men with a legitimate shot at election among a list of 25
names which, due mainly to the group of newcomers on the ballot, is perhaps the
weakest set of candidates in the last decade or more.
In
his ninth year on the ballot, Gossage will, if elected, become only the fifth
relief-pitching specialist chosen for Cooperstown,
joining Hoyt Wilhelm (chosen in
1985), Rollie Fingers (1992), Dennis Eckersley (2004) and Bruce Sutter (2006). Gossage’s election seems almost assured,
but Rice’s enshrinement is less-certain and he seems likely to fall just above
or below the cusp of the 75-percent support required. If Rice fails election this time, 2009
will mark his fifteenth and final year of BBWAA
eligibility.
But,
regardless of the outcome for either man, the most imposing aspect of this
year’s voting -- one
which seems destined to plague the Hall of Fame selection process for at least
two decades to come -- is
the degree to which the Cooperstown
process has become prisoner to, and tainted by baseball’s ongoing
performance-enhancement scandal. As
a result, the signal numbers in this year’s results, which should prove far more
historically significant to subsequent HOF voting than Gossage and/or Rice’s
election, will involve whether first baseman Mark McGwire improves or declines
dramatically from his dismal 23.5-percent support of 2007, and whether or not
second baseman Chuck Knoblauch and
outfielder David Justice
-- two
ballot newcomers implicated in the steroids scandal by the recent Mitchell
Report --
receive any votes at all.
Under
normal circumstances, McGwire’s 583 home runs would have guaranteed his
first-ballot election in 2007. But
the stigma of his admitted use of androstenedione in 1998, his apparent “outing”
as a steroid user by former teammate Jose Canseco, and his evasive testimony
before Congress in 2005 caused him to fall far short of election. As for Knoblauch and Justice, while
neither man was ever in danger of being elected to Cooperstown, they both
enjoyed the kind of careers that usually draw a few token votes --
perhaps just enough to remain on the ballot for a second time in a year of weak
candidates. So, if McGwire’s
support percentage declines and neither Knoblauch nor Justice receives any votes
at all, it will be indicative that the BBWAA is drawing a hard-line standard
with regard to real or suspected steroid/HGH use. Any other outcome --
McGwire’s support increasing and/or Knoblauch and Justice receiving the token
support they could have expected without their steroid linkage -- will
probably be evidence that the BBWAA membership lacks any firm consensus about
how to deal with the issue.
The
ballot for 2008 includes 14 holdovers from previous voting, 10 men in their
first year eligible and one man who was on the ballot in 2001 but has not been
since. The 2008 holdovers include
first basemen McGwire and Don
Mattingly, shortstops Dave
Concepcion and Alan Trammell,
outfielders Rice, Andre Dawson, Dale Murphy and Dave Parker, designated hitter Harold Baines, starting pitchers Bert Blyleven, Tommy John and Jack Morris, plus closers Gossage and
Lee Smith. Concepcion, the
acrobatic shortstop for the Cincinnati Reds of the 1970s, is in his fifteenth
and final year of BBWAA eligibility.
Among
the weakest group of ballot newcomers in recent memory are second baseman
Knoblauch, shortstop Shawon Dunston,
third sacker Travis Fryman,
outfielders Justice, Brady Anderson
(another player suspected of steroid use by some) and Tim Raines, starting pitchers Chuck Finley and Todd Stottlemyre, plus relief pitchers
Rod Beck and Robb Nen. Beck, who retired after the 2004 season,
was not due to appear on the ballot until 2010, but was added to this year’s
list after his premature, apparently cocaine-related death of 2007. Among the newcomers, Raines is the only
man likely to receive at least the 5-percent support required to remain on the
ballot in 2009.
Starting
pitcher Jose Rijo, most valuable
player of the 1990 World Series, returns to the
HOF
ballot in 2008, five years after making a brief major-league comeback (2001-02)
following his initial retirement in 1995.
In his first-ever appearance on the ballot in 2001, Rijo’s 116-91 (.560)
record earned him just one vote for 0.2-percent support, and he was immediately
dropped from future ballots for failure to earn 5-percent support. Rijo is destined for another
one-time-and-out result in 2008.
In
general, however, most ballot holdovers should enjoy increased vote and
support-percentage numbers from their 2007 performances. Beyond the weak field of newcomers,
there are two other reasons for that prediction. First, this year’s 25-man ballot
involves the smallest list of candidates in the modern (since 1960) era of
Cooperstown
voting. Although only 24 men
received votes in 2002, there were 28 names on that year’s ballot (with four
receiving no votes at all). Prior
to this year, the smallest ballot of the modern era was 1987, when just 26 names
were listed. With BBWAA voters
averaging five to six names per ballot in recent years, the short list of
candidates improves the chance that each holdover will receive increased support
over 2007.
Perhaps
more encouraging to the holdovers is the fact that, except for Mark McGwire,
this year’s ballot lacks any de facto qualifiers (i.e., men with career totals
of at least 500 home runs, 3,000 hits or 300 pitching victories). Prior to McGwire’s rejection last year,
the most recent de facto candidate to fail first-ballot election was pitcher Don Sutton, who first appeared on the
ballot in 1994 but was not elected until 1998. In the intervening years prior to
McGwire, each of nine de facto candidates was elected in their first year
eligible (Nolan Ryan, George Brett and Robin Yount in 1999, Dave Winfield in 2001, Eddie Murray in 2003, Paul Molitor in 2004, Wade Boggs in 2005, plus Cal Ripken, Jr. and Tony Gwynn in
2007).
That
bodes well for the 2008 ballot holdovers because the presence of de facto
candidates usually equates to reduced support for virtually everyone else on the
ballot, while their absence tends to produce almost across-the-board increase in
support for ballot veterans. As
shown in the table below, in the period since Sutton’s election in 1998, there
have been only three occasions when there was no de facto candidate on the BBWAA
ballot (2000, 2002 and 2006, each boldfaced below).
The
table data includes the number of men on each ballot (MoB), the number of
holdovers from the previous year (Hold), the number of candidates elected that
year (Elect), the number of de facto candidates on each ballot (DFC), plus the
number of holdover candidates whose support percentages increased (Inc) or
decreased (Dec) in each election.
The last three columns give the individual High and Low extremes and the
overall average (Avg) shift in support percentage (among all holdover
candidates, combined) for each election.
Effects
of De Facto Candidates on BBWAA Vote Support
(1998-2007)
|
Year |
MoB |
Hold |
Elect |
DFC |
Inc |
Dec |
High |
Low |
Avg |
|
1998 |
26 |
17 |
1 |
1 |
15 |
2 |
8.4 |
-1.7 |
3.2 |
|
1999 |
28 |
17 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
17 |
0.7 |
-13.4 |
-5.4 |
|
2000 |
30 |
16 |
2 |
0 |
15 |
1 |
22.1 |
-1.2 |
7.6 |
|
2001 |
32 |
15 |
2 |
1 |
9 |
6 |
15.2 |
-5.1 |
2.1 |
|
2002 |
28 |
17 |
1 |
0 |
5 |
12 |
15.7 |
-7.9 |
-0.9 |
|
2003 |
33 |
16 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
10 |
13.1 |
-6.6 |
0.3 |
|
2004 |
32 |
17 |
2 |
1 |
8 |
9 |
17.6 |
-5.7 |
0.6 |
|
2005 |
27 |
14 |
2 |
1 |
11 |
3 |
18.3 |
-3.8 |
3.4 |
|
2006 |
29 |
13 |
1 |
0 |
13 |
0 |
12.4 |
0.3 |
5.2 |
|
2007 |
32 |
15 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
13 |
6.6 |
-6.8 |
-3.1 |
Note
above that two of the boldfaced years without de facto candidates -- 2000
and 2006 --
posted the highest average increases in support among any of the ten years
listed (7.6 percent in 2000, 5.2 percent in 2006), as well as the most lopsided
ratios of individual increased-v-decreased support percentage (15-to-1 favoring
increase in 2000, 13-to-0 for 2006).
Note also that the only two elections which involved multiple de facto
candidates (1999, when Nolan Ryan, George Brett and Robin Yount were elected and
2007, when Cal Ripken, Jr. and Tony Gwynn were chosen while McGwire was
rejected) also reflect the most lopsided increase-v-decrease disadvantages to
holdover candidates during the same period (0 increases and 17 declines in 1999,
two up and 13 down in 2007).
Overall, the three ballots without de facto candidates averaged an
individual support percentage increase of 3.7 percent while the same outcome for
the seven ballots with de facto qualifiers was just 0.1 percent.
All
of this would seem to imply that most, perhaps all, of the 14 holdover
candidates from 2007 will receive higher support percentages in the 2008 voting,
and, without question, Gossage should be the prime beneficiary. Goose received 388 of a possible 545
votes (for 71.2-percent support) in last year’s voting (up from 64.6-percent in
2006). The 545 ballots cast
represented the largest total in HOF-vote history. In November, Cooperstown
officials announced that “more than 575” ballots had been mailed to prospective
electors. So, if a new record 575
ballots (or thereabouts) are turned in, Gossage would need approximately 432
votes -- an
increase of 44 votes over his 2007 total -- to
gain election.
Last
year Rice received 346 votes for 63.5-percent support. The figure represented a higher vote
total (346-to-337), but lower support percentage (63.5-to-64.8) than he earned
in 2006. But it seems fair to argue
that his slight decline in support percentage was entirely attributable to the
presence of three de facto candidates on the 2006 ballot, two of whom were
elected (Ripken with 98.5-percent support, Gwynn with 97.6). As a result, and given the relative
weakness of this year’s newcomers, I’m going out on a limb to predict that Rice
will gain election this time by just a vote or two. If he fails, his task will be more
difficult next year, when de facto candidate Rickey Henderson joins the
ballot.
Relatively
close, but no cigar is likely to be the story for two other candidates,
outfielder Andre Dawson and starting
pitcher Bert Blyleven. In 2007
Dawson
received 309 votes, for 56.7-percent support (down marginally from 317 and 61.0
in 2006), while Blyleven earned 260 votes and 47.7-percent support (down a bit
more dramatically from 277 and 53.3-percent the year before). I look for both of these men to make
significant gains in 2008, but don’t expect either to close within five percent
of election.
The
other holdovers on this year’s ballot all scored below 40-percent support in
2006, and despite their likely increased support this time, none of them is
destined to approach election.
Again, the most curious and meaningful score will be that of
McGwire. I look for his support
percentage to rise very slightly -- a
minor benefit of the weak field -- but
his percentage increase to be less than that of any other holdover who earned
10-percent or more support in 2007 (hence, an indication of no clear consensus
among the BBWAA about how to deal with the steroid
problem).
Among
the newcomers, Tim Raines is clearly the best candidate, and the only one truly
deserving to remain on the ballot for future elections. With 2605 career hits, 1571 runs scored,
and 808 stolen bases, and absent his contemporary Rickey Henderson, Raines would
possibly be recognized as the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history. Alas, I fear the BBWAA has little
appreciation for his subtle, relatively homer-less (170 career dingers)
credentials, and expect him to post a support score below 20
percent.
The
table below gives my numerical predictions for this year’s voting. The data columns include each man’s
number of years on the ballot (YoB), his support percentages received in the
last three BBWAA elections (2005, 2006 and 2007), the up, down or nonexistent
(none) trend implied by those results (at least two consecutive years of an
increase or decline in support are required for an “up” or “down” designation),
and the support percentage I expect each man to receive in this year’s
voting. The latter number is a
central-figure estimate representing a plus-or-minus range of three percent
(hence, a prediction of 60 percent implies an expectation that the player will
fall somewhere between 57- and 63-percent support). Ballot newcomers are listed in
italics.
For
what little it’s worth, if I were voting my ballot would include (in
alphabetical order): Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Goose Gossage, Tommy John,
Mark McGwire, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Tim Raines, Jim Rice and Lee
Smith.
| Player |
Pos |
YoB |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
Trend |
Pred |
| Goose Gossage |
rp |
9 |
59.5 |
64.8 |
71.2 |
up |
79 |
| Jim Rice |
of |
14 |
55.2 |
64.6 |
63.5 |
none |
75 |
| Andre Dawson |
of |
7 |
52.3 |
61 |
56.7 |
none |
68 |
| Bert Blyleven |
sp |
11 |
40.9 |
53.3 |
47.7 |
none |
59 |
| Lee Smith |
rp |
6 |
38.8 |
45 |
39.8 |
none |
46 |
| Jack Morris |
sp |
9 |
33.3 |
41.2 |
37.1 |
none |
44 |
| Tommy John |
sp |
14 |
23.8 |
29.6 |
22.9 |
none |
28 |
| Mark McGwire |
1b |
2 |
-- |
-- |
23.5 |
none |
25 |
| Tom Raines |
of |
1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
none |
19 |
| Dave Concepcion |
ss |
15 |
10.7 |
12.5 |
13.6 |
up |
18 |
| Alan Trammell |
ss |
7 |
16.9 |
17.7 |
13.4 |
down |
17 |
| Dave Parker |
of |
12 |
12.6 |
14.6 |
11.4 |
none |
16 |
| Don Mattingly |
1b |
8 |
11.4 |
12.3 |
9.9 |
none |
15 |
| Dale Murphy |
of |
10 |
10.5 |
10.8 |
9.2 |
none |
14 |
| Harold Baines |
dh |
2 |
-- |
-- |
5.3 |
none |
9 |
| Chuck Finley |
sp |
1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
none |
3 |
| David Justice |
of |
1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
none |
2 |
| Travis Fryman |
3b |
1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
none |
2 |
| Shawon Dunston |
ss |
1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
none |
1 |
| Chuck Knoblauch |
2b |
1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
none |
1 |
| Todd Stottlemyre |
sp |
1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
none |
1 |
| Brady Anderson |
of |
1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
none |
<1.0 |
| Jose Rijo |
sp |
1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
none |
<1.0 |
| Robb Nen |
rp |
1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
none |
<1.0 |
| Rod Beck |
rp |
1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
none |
<1.0 |
Note:
Although not a final decision, this may be my last-ever HOF-vote
prediction. Having written two
books about the Hall of Fame whose combined intent was to suggest methods by
which the selection process might correct past injustices and improve upon the
future prospects of elective fairness for every eligible candidate, I must admit
that the steroid debacle has convinced me that the Cooperstown process, already
long sullied by pre-steroid errors of election and omission, is now permanently
tainted and beyond any possible hope of repair.
It’s
my impression that the baseball establishment at large (the commissioner,
management, players’ union and baseball writers, combined) is predictably,
necessarily and fatally conflicted by the steroid problem. Despite recent evidence of an emerging
hard line (prompted almost entirely by fears of Congressional reprisal), the
commissioner and owners are nonetheless torn between their urge to whitewash the
entire affair so as not to threaten future revenues (and/or to avoid
acknowledging their obvious culpability in the problem) and a half-hearted
desire to clean up the game. The
players and their union are understandably self-defensive, torn between a
legitimate wish to protect player privacy (and union solidarity) while
preserving their image and hard-earned leverage against management. The hypocritical media, no stranger to
substance-abuse problems of its own, wants to act as a moral arbiter based on
spotty, incomplete evidence and a ton of innuendo.
In
that light it is also evident that, even if the baseball establishment spent
another $20 million apiece on a half-dozen more Mitchell-style reports culled
from different sources and leading to all-new lists of suspected users, we would
still never know for certain who did what performance-enhancing drugs when, and
for how long, or -- due
to the degree to which the chemistry involved is far ahead of the detection
options --
whether players continue to use them undetected in the future. Absent such specific detail and
knowledge, the future holds no prospect of elective justice for any candidate,
whether an actual steroid user, one suspected of such use, one tainted by false
allegations, or one who never took any performance-enhancing substance at
all.
In
that light, and absent any specific prohibitions against performance-enhancer
use prior to 2003, it seems to me that the only “fair and just” approach to
Cooperstown
voting in the future must be to ignore the issue entirely, as if it never
occurred. But, of course, such an
approach must unavoidably reward the “cheaters” and ignore the degree to which
baseball’s most cherished records are now permanently tainted and rendered
forever meaningless.
Amid
all of that, the amount of inconsistent and hypocritical punishment likely to be
meted out in the future by the Hall of Fame’s pompous and unjustifiably
self-righteous primary body of voters must and will inevitably exacerbate the
injustices already inherent in the Cooperstown selection process. The poor saps who have or do get
“caught” will suffer in the Cooperstown process, while others --
perhaps some who were bigger users in the long run -- will
avoid detection and punishment of any kind.
Will
Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens be denied a place in baseball’s
Valhalla? Will men like Ivan Rodriguez skate
through to Cooperstown
unscathed? I am rapidly reaching a
point where it no longer matters to me, and at which the entire selection
process has been rendered as theater of the absurd. In such a climate, and given that
mindset, it seems at the moment that any future effort to make good-faith
predictions on the outcome of these elections can be nothing more than a surreal
joke and a waste of my own time and energy.