The
St. Louis Cardinals’ Anthony Reyes was once the most highly-regarded prospect in
their system. Making his debut in
2005, Reyes picked up a win in his first big league game, going 6.1 innings
against the Milwaukee Brewers.
During
the 2006 season, Reyes made quite a few trips between St. Louis and
Memphis. He gave Cardinals fans a number of
reasons to expect big things were sure to come with two brilliant performances
in particular. In his seventh
career game, Reyes went out and held the defending World Champion Chicago White Sox to only one hit in an eight-inning complete game. Unfortunately, the only hit was a solo
home run and the Sox won the game, 1 to 0.
With his staff spent after a
hard-fought National League Championship Series, manager Tony La Russa called on
Reyes to start the first game of the World Series. The right-hander was better than anyone
could have expected, allowing the Detroit Tigers only two runs in eight innings
of work. At one point, Reyes
retired 17 hitters in a row.
After
those flashes of brilliance, 2007 was not what most Cardinal fans expected. Reyes struggled and finished the year
with a 2-14 record and an ERA over six.
After his struggles, Reyes doesn’t seem to be in the Cardinals’ 2008
plans. To me, that is a
mistake.
The
Cardinals went into the off-season hoping to land two pitchers to put alongside
Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro and Braden Looper while Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder recover from injuries. With
a shallow free agent pool and the bounty for a quality starting pitcher on the
rise, Anthony Reyes’ value may be better than any pitcher available.
Going
into the 2008 season, Anthony Reyes has logged 206 big league innings. Let’s
take a look at how Reyes compares to some of the free agent pitchers available
as well as some of the other up-and-coming pitchers around baseball during their
first 200 or so big league innings.
Ghost
of Pitchers Past
|
Pitcher |
Innings |
ERA |
Hits |
Ks |
Walks |
Record |
|
Anthony
Reyes |
206 |
5.42 |
198 |
158 |
81 |
8-23 |
|
Dan Haren |
206 |
4.55 |
211 |
142 |
70 |
10-17 |
The
former Cardinal Dan Haren was recently traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks for
six prospects. Through the same amount of innings at the start of their careers,
Haren has an ERA of almost a run better but has only two more wins. Reyes has better hit numbers as well as
strikeout totals. I thought the
difference might have been the walks but it breaks down to only a half-walk
difference over nine innings.
The
Highest Dollar Pitcher Left
|
Pitcher |
Innings |
ERA |
Hits |
Ks |
Walks |
Record |
|
Anthony
Reyes |
206 |
5.42 |
198 |
158 |
81 |
8-23 |
|
Kyle Lohse |
201 |
5.19 |
225 |
135 |
72 |
13-12 |
Kyle
Lohse is the free agent pitcher remaining on the market looking for the biggest
contract. Lohse does have a record
of one game above .500 and a slightly less ERA, but Reyes is superior in the
hits allowed department. Would you
rather have Reyes at near the minimum or Lohse for four years and close to $40
million?
Kris Benson and Josh
Towers
|
Pitcher |
Innings |
ERA |
Hits |
Ks |
Walks |
Record |
|
Anthony
Reyes |
206 |
5.42 |
198 |
158 |
81 |
8-23 |
|
Kris
Benson |
203 |
4.04 |
191 |
145 |
85 |
11-15 |
|
Josh
Towers
|
206 |
5.01 |
246 |
91 |
25 |
13-14 |
These
are two names that have been linked to the Cardinals in recent weeks. Benson’s ERA of just over four is
impressive but it was several injuries ago. Towers’ posting only 25 walks is a sign
of his great control but 91 strikeouts leaves quite a bit to be desired.
The
Best Lefty on the Market (not named Johan)
|
Pitcher |
Innings |
ERA |
Hits |
Ks |
Walks |
Record |
|
Anthony
Reyes |
206 |
5.42 |
198 |
158 |
81 |
8-23 |
|
Erik
Bedard |
205 |
3.74 |
204 |
181 |
87 |
11-11 |
Bedard
is said to be available but at what cost?
For the Cardinals it is believed that highly-regarded Colby Rasmus is the
starting point. Bedard’s numbers
are impressive especially considering they were posted in the highly-competitive
American League East.
Three
New Multi-Millionaires
In
December of 2006, Bonderman signed a four year/$38 million deal. During February 2007, the Reds gave
Arroyo a two year/$25 million extension while Harang signed a four year/$36.5
million deal. Of the three,
Bonderman is the pitcher that reminds me most of Reyes. Both can be dominant at times while both
seem to hit a stretch where they loses their focus and that usually leads to a
big inning.
The Cy
Young Award Winner
|
Pitcher |
Innings |
ERA |
Hits |
Ks |
Walks |
Record |
|
Anthony
Reyes |
206 |
5.42 |
198 |
158 |
81 |
8-23 |
|
Jake Peavy |
205 |
4.16 |
203 |
172 |
76 |
14-12 |
Peavy’s
ERA is more than a run better and his record is 6.5 games better.
The
Two Jeffs
|
Pitcher |
Innings |
ERA |
Hits |
Ks |
Walks |
Record |
|
Anthony
Reyes |
206 |
5.42 |
198 |
158 |
81 |
8-23 |
|
Jeff Weaver |
201 |
5.37 |
210 |
134 |
65 |
9-16 |
|
Jeff Suppan |
205 |
5.96 |
252 |
126 |
67 |
10-10 |
Both
Jeff Weaver and Jeff Suppan were instrumental in the Cardinals 2006 World Series
victory. Reyes compares very
favorably to both. Suppan was able to land a four-year/$40 million contract last
off-season which is amazing considering his less than super start to his
career.
Here
is how it looks when they are all lumped together:
|
Pitcher |
Innings |
ERA |
Hits |
Ks |
Walks |
Record |
|
Anthony
Reyes |
206 |
5.42 |
198 |
158 |
81 |
8-23 |
|
Dan
Haren |
206 |
4.55 |
211 |
142 |
70 |
10-17 |
|
Kris
Benson |
203 |
4.04 |
191 |
145 |
85 |
11-15 |
|
Josh
Towers
|
206 |
5.01 |
246 |
91 |
25 |
13-14 |
|
Erik
Bedard |
205 |
3.74 |
204 |
181 |
87 |
11-11 |
|
Jeremy
Bonderman |
204 |
5.15 |
230 |
125 |
89 |
9-21 |
|
Bronson
Arroyo |
204 |
5.51 |
227 |
140 |
78 |
9-14 |
|
Aaron
Harang |
205 |
5.00 |
227 |
145 |
84 |
14-11 |
|
Jake
Peavy |
205 |
4.16 |
203 |
172 |
76 |
14-12 |
|
Jeff
Weaver |
201 |
5.37 |
210 |
134 |
65 |
9-16 |
|
Jeff
Suppan |
205 |
5.96 |
252 |
126 |
67 |
10-10 |
Bedard’s
numbers stand out but no one else is really head and shoulders above the
rest.
When
looking at Reyes splits, there are a few stats that really stand
out.
Looking
at the numbers, Reyes didn’t seem ready to pitch when the game started. During the first inning, Reyes allowed a
line of .313/.402/.542 while allowing four home runs and 10 walks. In his 20 starts, he allowed 21 runs,
meaning he and the Cardinals were usually in a hole before some fans had made it
to their seats. He did post his
best strikeout totals in the opening frame, 22 of 74 total strikeouts or
30%. Something to note, Reyes did
not record a single double play in the opening frame.
The
26-year-old was a little better in the second, allowing an average of
.232/.309/.493 with three home runs and nine walks. In the third, he seemed to gain better
control, only five walks, but hitters knocked him around at a rate of
.304/.356/.468.
By the
fourth, Reyes seemed to settle in.
Hitters were left with a line of only .197/.264/.439, but by this time
the Cardinals were usually looking up at the opposition. He stayed stingy in the fifth and the
sixth; it is just he had labored so much in the first three innings he usually
didn’t see the seventh. Maybe that
was a good thing.
In
three appearances in the seventh inning, batters ripped Reyes for a line of
.364/.462/.455.
The
University of
Southern
California
product struggled with one of the fundamentals pitchers learn in their first
Little League practice; get ahead in the count. When the count was 0-1 hitters posted a
line of .263/.275/.421; when it was 0-2, the opposition hit only
.146/.146/.200. Unfortunately, he
didn’t get ahead in the count very often. When the count was 1-0, hitters
slapped him around for an average of .448/.484/.759.
The
former Trojan was much better from the wind-up compared to the stretch. With no runners on base, Reyes allowed
hitters a line of .215/.296/.346.
The right-hander really struggled with runners in scoring position, to
the tune of .337.405/.694. It got
really ugly with the bases loaded, as Reyes was bombed for a line of
.500/.500/.1.400 while allowing 18 runs in 12 plate appearances.
As you
can see, the numbers show that he is comparable to a number of successful
pitchers as well as some pitchers available on the free agent market who will
command multi-million dollar contracts.
With a few adjustments such as getting ahead in the count, inducing more
double plays (he recorded only six all season), and being more prepared early in
the game, Reyes is still capable of being a successful big league pitcher.
Dustin Mattison can be reached via
email at dustin@whiteyball.com.
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