Win Shares and the Hall of Fame – 2007 Update

Bill Gilbert’s third annual assessment of the Hall of Fame prospects for active players using the Bill James Win Share system. In the past, James has stated that 400 Win Shares means absolute enshrinement.

For the past three years, I have taken a look at the Hall of Fame credentials of active players based on the Bill James Win Share system. In the Win Shares system, James states that 400 career Win Shares means absolute enshrinement in the Hall of Fame and 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer. However, he cautions, while those standards describe the past, they are not as likely to describe the future as accurately. Players with 300 to 350 Win Shares in the past have generally gone into the Hall of Fame. In the future, they more often will not.

The Win Shares system provides a useful method of examining the body of work that a player has accumulated in his career. In the case of active players, it is interesting to see if they are on track for the Hall.

The first list includes active players with 300 or more Win Shares. Topping the list is Barry Bonds with 686 Win Shares, a total exceeded by only Babe Ruth (756) and Ty Cobb (722). Despite gaining only four Win Shares in 2006, Gary Sheffield joined Roger Clemens and Craig Biggio as the only other active players with 400 Win Shares. Five players passed the 300 mark in 2006: Jeff Kent, Randy Johnson, Jim Thome, Tom Glavine and Chipper Jones. Glavine gained five Win Shares on Johnson in 2006 and is on the verge of passing him to become the top left-handed pitcher of his generation, based on Win Shares.

Active Players with 300 Win Shares (WS)

	  1/1/07 '06  WS thru 	
	     Age  WS  2006  Comment
Pos. Players				
Barry Bonds   42  25  686   Only Ruth and Cobb have more.
Craig Biggio  41  11  422   Closing in on Ripken at 427.
G. Sheffield  38   4  402   Now in can’t miss territory over 400.
Frank Thomas  38  21  383   Huge '06 comeback ensures election.
K. Griffey Jr 37   9  367   Early success should be enough.
A. Rodriguez  31  25  340   Still piles up stats in an off-year.
Manny Ramirez 34  27  334   Had best year on this list.
Mike Piazza   38  11  320   Best hitting catcher ever.
Jeff Kent     38  18  313   Building a pretty strong case.
B. Williams   38   8  311   Nearing the end, probably short of Hall.
Jim Thome     36  25  304   Has a shot after comeback in 2006.
Chipper Jones 34  22  301   A couple more good years and he's in.
				
Pitchers				
Roger Clemens 44  11  432   Fifth on all-time list for pitchers.
Greg Maddux   40  12  383   Sure bet for the Hall.
Randy Johnson 43   8  305   Another sure bet despite recent decline.
Tom Glavine   40  13  303   Should reach 300 wins in 2007.

A strong group of players have apparently completed their careers in 2005 with 300+ Win Shares and will appear on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time in 2011 if they stay retired.

 	       1/1/07	WS thru 	
	        Age	2006	Comment
Player			
Rafael Palmeiro	42	394	Left under a cloud.
Jeff Bagwell	38	387	Should lead this class.
Sammy Sosa	38	311	Ugly exit in '05. May be back.
Larry Walker	40	307	May not be enough.
John Olerud	38	301	Not enough power.

The next list is of players with 250 Win Shares through 2006. These players should get on the HOF ballot but most will not be elected. Three players moved into this group in 2006, Moises Alou, Carlos Delgado and Omar Vizquel.

Active Players with 250 Win Shares

	Age on	WS in	WS thru
	1/1/2007	2006	2006	Comment
Position Players
Luis Gonzalez	39	12	297	Doesn’t have the numbers.
Steve Finley	41	10	296	Same category as Gonzalez.
Ivan Rodriguez	35	24	296	A sure bet.
Jason Giambi	35	22	283	Needs 3 or 4 more big years.
Julio Franco	48	3	278	Amazing career but not HOF.
Derek Jeter	32	32	277	Another sure thing.
Jim Edmonds	36	11	274	Not quite HOF caliber.
Kenny Lofton	39	12	273	Lengthy but not dominant career.
Moises Alou	40	14	263	Missed too much playing time.
Carlos Delgado	34	22	262	Borderline if he stays productive.
Omar Vizquel	39	20	250	Way short of Ozzie Smith’s 325 WS.
Pitcher
John Smoltz	39	15	272	Will get some consideration.

The final list is of active players that have 200 Win Shares. Many are productive veterans with good careers but without HOF credentials. Only those on this list younger than 35 have a realistic chance. Six players joined this list in 2006: Johnny Damon, Ray Durham, Albert Pujols, Miguel Tejada, Nomar Garciaparra and Jason Kendall.

Active Players with 200 Win Shares

	Age on	WS in	WS thru
	1/1/2007	2006	2006	Comment
Position Players
Bobby Abreu	32	27	249	Needs a long career.
Brian Giles	35	21	249	Slowing down too soon.
Vladimir Guerrero	30	24	243	Piling up HOF stats.
Scott Rolen	31	21	235	Needs to stay healthy to have a shot.
Tim Salmon	38	4	232	End of a good but not great career.
Andruw Jones	29	22	232	Early start gives him a chance.
Todd Helton	33	21	230	Decline phase started early.
Shawn Green	34	11	225	Not a serious candidate.
Ryan Klesko	35	1	223	Doesn’t seem to have much left.
Ruben Sierra	41	0	222	Did not sustain early promise.
Johnny Damon	33	21	216	Won’t generate HOF credentials.
Ray Durham	35	20	212	Nice comeback in 2006 but way short.
Edgardo Alfonzo	33	0	211	Career cratered early.
Albert Pujols	26	37	210	On pace for 525 WS in 15 year career.
Miguel Tejada	30	23	210	Has time to put up the numbers.
Reggie Sanders	39	5	206	Many stops but not Cooperstown.
Nomar Garciaparra	33	17	203	Too much time lost to injuries.
Jason Kendall	32	23	202	Durable but not productive enough.
Pitchers
Pedro Martinez	35	6	249	Dominance will get him in.
Mike Mussina	38	14	248	Still has work to do.
Curt Schilling	40	15	242	Post-season success will help his case.
David Wells	43	4	207	Way short.

Bill Gilbert is a baseball analyst and writer and member of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR).

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