Not the Kind of M&M Boys You Crave

Using the Runs Saved Against Average (RSAA) measurement to quantify how bad 2006 really was for St. Louis Cardinals pitchers Jason Marquis and Mark Mulder and to consider alternatives.

Upon Jason Marquis’ agreeing to terms with the free-spending Chicago Cubs on a three-year, $21 million contract recently, Complete Baseball Encyclopedia’s Lee Sinins starkly observed the following:

“Marquis had the 5th worst RSAA in Cardinals history in 2006”

RANK	CARDINALS	YEAR	RSAA
1	Dan Griner	1913	-52
2	Pol Perritt	1913	-44
3	Bob Harmon	1910	-43
4	Andy Benes	2001	-36
5	Jason Marquis	2006	-35
6	Jack Powell	1900	-33
T7	Chappie McFarland	1905	-29
T7	Mark Mulder	2006	-29
T7	Jerry Reuss	1971	-29
T10	Bob Harmon	1913	-28
T10	Bob Purkey	1965	-28

Now, I don’t know about you, but even though I watched just about every Cardinals game all season long and I knew the starters had a rough time, I didn’t realize how bad it really was.

In the recently-completed 2006 season, using RSAA as the measurement, Jason Marquis and Mark Mulder provided us two of the most extended stretches of bad pitching that had ever been seen in the modern era of St. Louis Cardinals baseball.

In other words, over the last 106 years the Cardinals franchise has been in place, Marquis and Mulder circa 2006 put in the books two of the worst eight individual seasons ever.

By the way, RSAA is Runs Saved Against Average, a measure of pitching effectiveness. It is the amount of runs that a pitcher saved versus what an average pitcher would have allowed and therefore, can produce a negative result. The exact formula: Runs allowed per nine innings minus league average runs allowed per nine innings multiplied by the number of innings pitched.

This is clearly the kind of subject at the right time of year when a bit of historical perspective is especially welcome. So, I fired up my new copy of the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia to dig a bit deeper.

Marquis’ -35 RSAA mark is tied for the 28th worst season put together by any National Leaguer since 1900, while Mulder’s -29 RSAA just placed him into the second 100 of the most negative NL single-season RSAA’s ever.

Here you can see Marquis’ career numbers. He came into last season with a career RSAA of plus 11, despite having positive season totals in just three of his six years in the bigs. 2006 changed all that.

YEAR	TEAM	AGE	W	L	IP	ERA	RSAA
2000	Braves	21	1	0	23.1	5.01	-1
2001	Braves	22	5	6	129.1	3.48	13
2002	Braves	23	8	9	114.1	5.04	-11
2003	Braves	24	0	0	40.2	5.53	-6
2004	Cardinals	25	15	7	201.1	3.71	10
2005	Cardinals	26	13	14	207	4.13	4
2006	Cardinals	27	14	16	194.1	6.02	-35
	TOTALS		56	52	910.1	4.55	-26
	LG AVERAGE		51	51	910.1	4.32	0

Mulder was recently quoted as saying that he hoped to return to St. Louis in 2007 because Cardinals fans hadn’t seen the “real” Mark Mulder. Now, I understand what he meant as much as I did when I first looked at Carlos Gomez’ tapes of the changes in Mulder’s throwing motion since his days in Oakland.

YEAR	TEAM	AGE	W	L	IP	ERA	RSAA
2000	A's	22	9	10	154	5.44	-13
2001	A's	23	21	8	229.1	3.45	22
2002	A's	24	19	7	207.1	3.47	28
2003	A's	25	15	9	186.2	3.13	23
2004	A's	26	17	8	225.2	4.43	6
2005	Cardinals	27	16	8	205	3.64	15
2006	Cardinals	28	6	7	93.1	7.14	-29
	TOTALS		103	57	1301.1	4.11	52
	LG AVERAGE		73	73	1301.1	4.53	0

As you can see, save his rookie season, Mulder has put up positive RSAA counts each season of his career – until 2006, that is. His 15 RSAA campaign in 2005 did not approach his stellar three-year run in Oakland from 2000 through 2003, yet it was serviceable.

Looking at this data should make it clear which of these two pitchers is more desirable. But, you knew that already, right?

Let’s extend this little look-see to include the other members of the 2006 Cardinals staff.

NEG		2006	CAREER
RANK		RSAA	RSAA	YRS	COMMENT
1	Jason Marquis	-35	-26	7
2	Mark Mulder	-29	52	7
T3	Sidney Ponson	-7	-69	9	Neg 11 in less time in NY
T3	Jeff Weaver	-7	-34	8	Neg 19 in Anaheim alone
T5	Anthony Reyes	-6	-4	2
T5	Randy Flores	-6	-7	4	Up and down a bit
7	Jorge Sosa	-3	-11	5	One good year was all
T8	Ricardo Rincon	-2	48	10	Very solid over 10 years
T8	Tyler Johnson	-2	-2	1
10	Chris Narveson	0	0	1
11	Brian Falkenborg	1	-7	4
12	Josh Hancock	2	-1	5
13	Josh Kinney	3	3	1
14	Jason Isringhausen	5	49	11	No neg since 1999 (Mets)
15	Jeff Suppan	6	16	12	Neg 6 before coming to StL
T16	Brad Thompson	7	15	2	Two positive seasons
T16	Braden Looper	7	44	9	Never a negative RSAA
18	Adam Wainwright	11	9	2	First season was negative
19	Chris Carpenter	32	78	9	39 in 2005, 7 before that
	Kip Wells	-10	-4	8	Had nice 2002, 2003 years
	Russ Springer	7	-43	14	4 negatives in last 6 years

While these numbers are perhaps somewhat reflective of the types of innings pitched given their different roles, it is still illustrative. Like me, I suspect your eyes will quickly fall to Adam Wainwright, who posted the second-best RSAA mark on the entire Cardinals team in 2006. Who wouldn’t want to see more of where that came from?

Moving over to the career totals on the right, Braden Looper and Ricardo Rincon stand out as long-term positives, while Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver look very average. Yet, I would have to see a lot more than this to convince me that Looper is a viable candidate for a rotation spot in 2007.

I also included the two recent signees, including Kip Wells, who needs to recapture his form - from four and five years previous. Hmmm.

Next are the season and career RSAA numbers for the major remaining non-Cardinals free-agent starters (Type A and B) still on the market, followed by the “top” non-tenders from two weeks ago. To say pickings are slim is a serious understatement.

	2006	CAR.
FREE AGENT/TYPE	RSAA	RSAA	YRS	COMMENT
Barry Zito (A)	14	146	7	Never neg, just 34 in last 3 yrs.
Roger Clemens (A)	29	727	23	Best all-time, 59 over Grove
David Wells (B)	0	132	20	Very near the end
Chan Ho Park (B)	-10	-26	13	Last positive season - 2000
Tomo Ohka (B)	-3	48	8	Heyday was 2002-2003
Ramon Ortiz (B)	-26	-47	8	Jason Marquis territory
NON TENDERS
Joel Pineiro	-38	-23	7	Last three years - minus 75!
Brandon Duckworth	-6	-63	6	Universally bad
Victor Zambrano	-6	-3	6	Consistently average
Brandon Claussen	-12	-21	4	Best year '05 (5) - only lefty
Chin-Hui Tsao	-2	-7	3	Rotator cuff surgery - age 25
Jerome Williams	-4	13	4	Average since good rookie '03

Looking at this list, one can better understand why Walt Jocketty isn't too excited about the free agent pitching options remaining.

Of course, using RSAA alone, or any other single measurement for that matter, cannot tell the complete story. Yet, I hope you found this slice of data interesting.

To do your own research with the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, go here to order your own copy. You can also subscribe to daily updates during the season if you are really serious. Warning: It can be addictive!



Brian Walton can be reached via email at [e-mail].

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