Though an admittedly almost-completely biased source, the staff of stlcardinals.scout.com once again provide their fearless predictions for the outcome of the 2006 regular season in the National League Central Division.
For those who prefer to get right to the point, here are the individual scores with the consensus on the left. Commentary follows.
| |
Total |
Walton |
Mammy |
Khazen |
Markee |
Duncan |
|
Cardinals |
6 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
Cubs |
13 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
Astros |
17 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
|
Brewers |
17 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
|
Reds |
26 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
|
Pirates |
26 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
Not surprisingly, only our St. Louis-based Cubs fan writer Pete Khazen did not pick the Cardinals to win. Hmmm. Come to think of it, I don’t remember inviting him to provide his predictions…
Despite being a solid consensus forecast for second place, the Cubs still had the greatest disparity of rankings from first (Khazen) to fifth (Mammy). At the other end of the spectrum, despite a few nice comments, when it was said and done, all agree that the Reds stack up to be a second-division team.
Brian Walton
1. Cardinals- Frankly, I don’t care if the Cardinals win 92 or 95 or 100 games this regular season. If they play at a level anywhere near their potential, they will again take the Division by storm by what could be another double-digit margin. Scott Rolen is the key.
2. Cubs - While the Northsiders beefed up their middle relief corps in the off-season, their fragile starting pitching may again do them in. Unless they seriously threaten to take the Division however, it could be manager Dusty Baker’s last season in pinstripes. Now, that would be a shame.
3. Astros - I realize that I am not giving the defending League Champions much respect. The reason why is that about all they did over the winter was get older, unless you count the addition of an outfielder with chronic knee problems, Preston Wilson. This may finally be the year that Craig Biggio shows his age like Jeff Bagwell. Still, any team with Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt and Roger Clemens (maybe) should be in any game, anytime. They just won’t win enough of them.
4. Brewers - Ned Yost’s talented gang is this season’s trendy pick by many based on their surprise 2005 second-place showing. The youngsters are there, but not yet ready to compete for the crown, in my view. Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks and crew will be fun to watch, though. Ben Sheets may be the difference-maker and he isn’t right again physically. That alone dropped the Brew Crew to fourth here.
5. Reds. - Too bad they don’t play in Colorado. 10-8 games are expected there. These are sort of the anti-Astros, as quality pitching will continue to be an endangered species in the Queen City. Still, the Reds might be competitive - until Ken Griffey, Jr. gets hurt again. All I can think of are the signs behind home plate there – “cincinnatireds.com”. Tired, indeed!
6. Pirates - All winter long, I was utterly amazed over the number of “experts” who raved about the Bucs’ acquisitions of such players as former Royal Joe Randa, Brewer Jeromy Burnitz and ex-Reds first baseman Sean Casey. C’mon, how many championships do they have among them? In their 33 aggregate years in the majors, the answer is none, unless you count Randa joining the Padres last season with 58 games remaining before they stumbled into the playoffs. Wild Cards? Nope. So, all told, the new guns bring with them to the Steel City a total of three games of career post-season experience in 1/3 of a century of play. Now, isn’t that impressive? New manager Jim Tracy may soon be wishing he had bad boy Milton Bradley back to deal with. At least, that kept him awake in L.A. Ok, maybe not, but you get the point.
Joe Mammy
1. Cardinals - To be the champs you have to beat the champs. Which, technically I suppose the Astros did, but Houston has been their own worst streaky enemy the past two seasons. They’ll have to put it together consistently for an entire season before I’ll give it to them.
2. Astros - Like the Cardinals more has been made of who they don’t have (some Clemens guy…) than who they’ve built around. The Astros don’t seem to be getting any younger, but they’re a solid and professional team who’ve been in the thick of it every year with the Cards.
3. Brewers - They’re young, they’re fresh and after a .500 finish, I predict the Brewers will continue to build their momentum. They’ve got the pitching and the offense to round up the top three of playoff contenders in the Central.
4. Reds - Built around offense and trying to catch up on pitching makes for some big games, but no pennant or playoffs in Cincy, I’m afraid. It will be interesting to see how new ownership tries and turn around the Reds from chronic bottom-half finishes.
5. Cubs - Not to kick sand in their faces, but I suspect the Cubbies will probably hit rock bottom this year. The pitching doesn’t seem as scary as it has, the offense is okay, but it just seems like this team tends to melt down… repeatedly. If they start slow expect the angry mob of peasants to gather with pitchforks and torches at Wrigley sooner than later.
6. Pirates - One step forward, two steps back. A recently headline pretty much summed it up for me: Former Pirates manager enjoying experience with Tigers. The perennial whipping boys of the NL Central are back and not much seems to have changed in their organization. It’s kind of a shame, really.
Pete Khazen
1. Cubs – After two years of disappointment, the Cubs will return to the top of the NL Central with their eyes set on debunking their own curses just as the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox managed to do. Juan Pierre will be the difference in 2006 as he will jumpstart the offense and set the table for Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee. The health of their starting pitching staff is most concerning, but the injury bug can creep up and bite any staff at any time of the year.
2. Cardinals – The 2006 lineup just isn’t as formidable as it was in 2005. Walt Jocketty might add a big name or two down the stretch to help that, but it will end up being too little too late. When fans look at Larry Bigbie and Sidney Ponson from the cheap seats and then glance at their $18 premium ticket stub, they’re going to start wondering where that money is going, and whether the new ballpark was worth it.
3. Astros – Roy Oswalt showed just how special he can be last season, and Andy Pettitte showed he’s still got the goods. But this club just doesn’t have enough offense to make a run in 2006, even with Roger Clemens in their starting rotation. As for Morgan Ensberg, he’ll show the world that the 2005 playoffs were not a fluke, but that the regular season was.
4. Brewers – With a very underrated pitching staff, the Brew Crew will remain competitive in 2006. This team lacks depth, though, and like most small-market clubs, that will be their ultimate demise.
5. Pirates – Sean Casey does help the Pirates, and some can argue that Jeromy Burnitz does as well. But adding some veteran talent around Jason Bay, that contending teams just aren’t really interested in, well, that’s just not good enough.
6. Reds – They’ve got an absolutely loaded lineup. In 2006 the Reds will hit a whole lot of long balls and make some pitchers cry. But no matter how tough a lineup might look or how far you might be able to occasionally hit the ball, you can’t win without pitching.
Leonda Markee
1. Cardinals - The Cardinals come off back-to-back 100-win seasons. With the number of question marks in both the bullpen and position starters, that will be difficult to match again this season. However, they remain the team to beat in this division and I do not see them declining enough for any other team to catch them.
2. Cubs - It is very difficult, as a Cardinals fan, for me to fairly assess the Cubs but I will try. They struggle on offense because they have a manager who does not believe in either the benefits of on-base percentage or small ball. If Juan Pierre’s performance returns to 2003/2004 levels, rather than 2005, the Cubs’ offense should improve. Jacque Jones for Jeremy Burnitz is a likely wash. Zambrano is an ace that continues to improve. However, while remaining one of the smartest pitchers in the game, Greg Maddux was a league average pitcher last season and he will only be another year older in 2006. (To put it in perspective; Matt Morris, whom the Cardinals made little effort to re-sign, put up numbers comparable to Maddux in 2005.) Even if Mark Prior returns to form, that gives the Cubs two plus pitchers in a five-man rotation since Kerry Wood is going to have to show that he can stay healthy before he is a factor.
3. Pirates - The Pirates improve immediately just with the managerial change. In Kip Wells, Zach Duke, Oliver Perez and Paul Maholm, with Ian Snell waiting in the wings, the Pirates have a very promising young staff. However, Wells’ projected absence until the All-Star break leaves the rotation lacking in experience. The Bucs also have Jason Bay to carry the team offensively and they traded for one of my favorite non-Cardinals, Sean Casey. This is a team on the upswing and may be only a year or so away from seriously contending. If everything clicks just right, that year could be 2006.
4. Brewers - Ned Yost, the Brewers’ manager, is a keeper. Ben Sheets is an ace and they have excellent young players ready to go, such as Prince Fielder and Richie Weeks. While I think the Pirates have more overall offensive depth, the Brewers are also a team going in the right direction.
5. Astros - The Astros’ big problem in 2005 was the offense and their big off-season acquisition was Preston Wilson. While he may improve the team, there several other Astros with question marks as to whether they can repeat their 2005 performances, I do not see him as a difference maker. The big question here is “Will he or won’t he?” Roger Clemens’ pitching turns the Astros from pretenders to contenders. This ranking presumes that Clemens is not with the team.
6. Reds - This is a team that in 2005 led the entire National League in runs scored per game and was dead last in runs allowed per game. While the change in ownership should help in the future, not enough was done during this off-season to change their fate for 2006. In fact, I have the Reds sliding into last place in 2006.
Rex Duncan
1. Cardinals - Still the standard for excellence in the National League, the Cardinals’ off-season philosophy seems to have been “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, and don’t overpay fixing what ain’t broke.” If Scott Rolen returns at full throttle, the Redbirds have as good a defense as can be found in baseball today. Any offense that features Albert Pujols is still scary to opposing pitchers, and a healthy Rolen provides added protection for Jim Edmonds batting clean-up. Starting pitchers are solid and healthy with an added hint of Arubian mystery. The bullpen might be a bit of a question in terms of long relief and new set-up man Braden Looper’s health. My 2006 dark horse – John Rodriguez. If this kid is for real offensively, he will claim sole possession of left field and lend more protection should he bat 2nd in the order. A 96-win season will bring home the NL Central title in 2006. Now if only I can get a radio station that is on the Cardinal Network.
2. Brewers - Pete Khazen gasps, but my NL Central long shot has consistently improved over recent years to the point where they are ready to challenge. Brewers management has done a quietly terrific job of assembling a young, dynamic exciting group that will surprise a lot of people. Ben Sheets, the Brewers’ ace starter, has worked in relative obscurity. No more. With Chris Capuano and Doug Davis in the rotation, the Brewers’ starting pitching is solid. If Sheets stays healthy, 2006 could be his break-out year. They boast one of the finest infields in baseball and their outfield is capable defensively and explosive with the bats. Second might be a bit of a stretch, but this is the most improved team in the NL Central.
3. Cubs - The potent Cubs could flip-flop with the Brewers for second, but the baby bears simply must keep their starting pitchers healthy. Cub fans cringe every time mention is made about the health of starting pitchers Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. Wood is down again, this time for minor arthroscopic knee surgery, but the confidence of fans and teammates has to be shaken. First baseman Derrek Lee had an out-of-character career year offensively in 2005. In order to be accepted as a proven MVP-caliber player, Lee will have to show cynics that 2005 wasn’t a fluke. Aramis Ramirez remains solid with the glove and bat at the hot corner. Middle infield might be a bit of question, but the addition of Juan Pierre gives the Cubs a bona fide lead off man. If the Cubs don’t win early and often this year, it may be adios Dusty Baker, a decision that could be made as early as the All-Star break if the Northsiders flounder.
4. Astros - The 2005 NL Central champs return as a real contender, but if Roger Clemens actually DOES retire as I suspect he might, that leaves a starting rotation of Andy Pettite, Roy Oswalt, and then mere mortals. Forty year old fan favorite Craig Biggio will give it one more shot, but his body just won’t follow where his mind wills it these days. The Jeff Bagwell mess, despite the merits of both sides on the issue, is and will remain a distraction for so long as it is allowed to fester. The Astros gave a gutsy second-half performance that pushed them in to the World Series last years. This year the obstacles mount.
5. Reds - The Reds are making right moves, but they find themselves in a rebuilding process. The move of Adam Dunn from the outfield to first base will pay off in the long run, but he won’t challenge for a Gold Glove anytime soon. The loss of Sean Casey’s offense will be hard to replace. A good middle infield will be challenged by suspect starting pitching. The aging and chronically brittle Ken Griffey, Jr. is always a preseason question mark in the outfield. Wily Mo Pena’s evolution to star-status will need to accelerate if the Reds are to have a shot.
6. Pirates - The hiring of Jim Tracy will bring stability and a reemphasis on discipline and fundamentals, qualities lost under the departed Lloyd McClendon. There’s room for optimism. Young Jason Bay lit up the National League in 2005 as Rookie of the Year. The addition by trade of Sean Casey will bring some offensive pop. The middle infield anchored by former Cardinal farm hand Jack Wilson could be electric in turning double plays. Both the starting pitching and the bullpen are suspect, though, the bench isn’t going to provide much help, and poor fundamental play may continue to plague the Buccos in 2006.