Sabermetric Glossary and Abbreviations
Note: Many Stats / Terms were compiled from Big Bad Baseball.com
Adjusted Innings (AdjIP)
A measure used to calculate the number of innings a pitcher has thrown in a season based on the ratio of his pitches per inning against the league average pitches thrown per inning. Derived by the formula:
IP*(Pitcher's PPI/League PPI).
If the pitcher's PPI is higher than the league average, then his Adjusted Innings will be greater than his actual IP; if his PPI is lower than the league average, then his Adjusted Innings total will be lower than his actual IP. The "mystery" of how a pitcher like Greg Maddox is able to perennially be at or near the lead in innings pitched without suffering the effects of overwork is explained when his IP are adjusted by his PPI, which shows that the effective number of innings he is throwing is 20% lower than his actual IP (245 actual IP in 1996, 194 adjusted innings).
Adjusted Opponent eXtrapolated Runs per Game (aOXR/G)
Estimate of how many runs a pitcher would allow based on his opponents' park-adjusted eXtrapolated Runs. The pitcher version of eXtrapolated Runs per G (XR/G). This number appears to correlate much higher with future performance than actual ERA. The reason is simple: ERA is heavily influenced by things beyond a pitcher's control. Example, defensive errors and reliever performance with inherited runners can radically change a pitcher's ERA.
A pitcher's Pythagorean Winning Percentage adjusted for his team Defensive Winning Percentage (DWP%). Calculated by the formula:
= ( IsoPWP *PitResp ) + ( Team DWP*DefResp )
The age at which an unusually high percentage of players have their best seasons. As a consequence, when people devise such career projections systems as Bill James' BROCK2 spreadsheet, the best season will compute out to be age 27.
Not all players have their career years at age 27. Not 50% of them do. But maybe 30% do have them then, and that is clearly the best figure for any age. When you add in the ones that have their career years at age 26 and 28, that three-year period is clearly the peak for Major League Baseball players.
Simultaneously full of mischief and rigor, the Ashley Hexagon (named for former Dodger slugger Billy Ashley) depicts the limits of batting average, on-base average, and isolated power in terms of their contribution to offense. Expanded from Bill James' original discussion of Runs Created in the 1982 Baseball Abstract, the Ashley Hexagon displays a geometric view of the components of offense and their relationship to one another, providing a new way to classify and display players, teams, leagues, batting order positions, etc.
At-Bats (AB): Number of plate appearances a player has during a game. Walks, Hit by pitch and sacrifices do not count.
Average Team Games (AvgTmG)
The average of the number of games played by teams in a league. See Extrapolated Wins.
Average (AVG): Batting Average (see also BA)
BA: Batting Average (see also Avg)
The old official encyclopedia of baseball, which revolutionized the field of baseball statistics when it first appeared in 1969. Often called "Big Mac" for its size and its publisher (Macmillan), it has reached ten editions and still contains information unavailable elsewhere.
Bases on Balls (BB): A walk. Intentional BB (IBB)
Bases on Ball Percentage (BBP)
The percentage of total plate appearances resulting in walks, derived by the formula: BB/(AB+BB+SF+SH+HBP+CI). Historically, the Major League BBP is about one for every eleven plate appearances, or 9.1%. The all-time career leader in BBP is Ted Williams (20.76%).
Base Performance Index (BPX): A comparison of a player's Base Performance Value to the overall level of talent in his league in a given year. This accounts for changes in overall talent level from one year to the next. A BPX value of 100 represents a skills set that is exactly at the league average. Values above 100 are above average performances; below 100 are below average performances.
Base Performance Indicator (BPI): A statistical formula that measures a single, isolated aspect of a player's raw skill and is almost always a situation independent evaluator. Although there are many such formulas, there are only a few that we are referring to when the term is used on Baseball HQ. For batters, our BPIs are linear weighted power (Pw), speed score (Sp) and batting eye (Eye). For pitchers, our BPIs are control ratio (Ctl), strikeout rate (K/G), opposition on base average (OOB), strand rate (S%), and expected earned run average (xERA).
Base Performance Value (BPV): A single value that describes a player's overall raw skill level. This is more useful than any traditional statistical gauge to track player performance trends and project future statistical output. The actual BPV formula combines and weights several BPIs.
Batters Faced per Start (BFS)
Developed by Craig Wright as part of a study of workloads on young pitchers in his book The Diamond Appraised; it estimates the number of batters faced in each game started by a pitcher, derived from the formula: (IP*3)/GS.
Batters Faced per Game (BF/Gm)
((IP x 2.82) + H + BB) / G:
A measure of pitcher usage and one of the leading indicators for potential pitcher burnout (Craig Wright). (See Overuse Warning Flags in the Forecaster's Toolbox)
Batting Average (BA or AVG)
The old chestnut of baseball hitting stats that some baseball fans (and players) can calculate to six decimal places. No longer considered to be the ultimate indicator of a hitter's value, it nevertheless is still used for such a purpose in spite of the efforts of sabermetrics. See Isolated Power, On Base Percentage, On-Base Plus Slugging, Offensive Index, Runs Created, Secondary Average, Extrapolated Wins.
Batting Average: The grand old nugget that we insist on parading around long after it has outgrown its usefulness. Its true value now is nothing more than a link to baseball's past. But this remains deceptive. We revere .300 hitting superstars and scoff at .250 hitters, yet the difference between the two is 1 hit every 20 ABs. This 1 hit every four or five games is not nearly the wide variance that exists in our perceptions of what it means to be a .300 or .250 hitter. The bottom line is that BA is a poor evaluator of overall baseball performance. BA neglects the offensive value of the base on balls and assumes that all hits are created equal. But our love affair persists.
(Batting Eye x 20) + ((Batting Average - .300) / .003) + (Linear Weighted Power x 1.25)
This formula combines the individual raw skills of batting eye, the ability to hit safely, and the ability to hit with power.
Benchmarks: The best hitters had a BPV of 50 or greater, and represented approximately the top 20% of all offensive players.
(Strikeout Rate x 6) + (Control Ratio x 21) - (Opposition HR Rate x 30) - ((Opposition batting average - .275) x 200):
This formula combines the individual raw skills of power, control, the ability to keep batters from reaching base and the ability to prevent long hits, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external stimuli. In tandem with a pitcher's opposition on base average and strand rate, it provides a complete picture of the elements that contribute to a pitcher's ERA, and therefore serves as an accurate tool to project likely changes in ERA.
Benchmarks: We generally consider a BPV of 50 to be the minimum level required for long-term success. There are some veteran pitchers who have rarely reached this level, but they are generally the types who are workhorse inning-eaters and post very high ERAs. The elite of the bullpen aces will have a BPV of over 100 and it is rare for these stoppers to enjoy long term success with consistent levels under 75.
Batting Order Position (BOP)
Also known as a "lineup slot," this is the individual numbered slot (1-9) in the lineup developed by managers for each game.
Batting Runs (BR)
The Linear Weights measure, developed by Pete Palmer, of runs contributed beyond those of league-average batter or team, with the league average performance level set at zero. (.47)(1B) + (.78)(2B) +(1.09)(3B) +(1.40)(HR) + (.33)(BB+HP) – (.25)(AB-H)
Baserunners per Innings Pitched: The ratio of hits and walks to innings pitched. Decreed as a base Rotisserie category, is also alternately called WHIP (walks, hits, innings pitched), BRIP, and the highly-descriptive "Ratio".
(Walks / Strikeouts):
A measure of a player's batting eye -- the raw ability to distinguish between balls and strikes -- used as a leading indicator for batting average. Similar to a pitcher's Control ratio.
Benchmarks: The best hitters have eye ratios over 1.00 (indicating more walks than strikeouts) and are the most likely to be among a league's .300 hitters. At the other end of the scale are ratios less than 0.50 which represent batters who likely also have lower BAs.
BBBA Slang for a player who moves swiftly from organization to organization, often multiple times within a single year, usually at the minor league level. A statistical study of "bouncers" has yet to be undertaken, but it appears that the phenomenon is most common amongst pitchers, who show the greatest amount of performance volatility.
Caught Stealing (CS).
(Strikeouts / Walks):
A measure of a pitcher's raw ability to get the ball over the plate. There is no more fundamental a skill than this, and so it is accurately used as a leading indicator to project future rises and falls in other gauges, such as ERA. Command is one of the best gauges to use to evaluate minor league performance. It is a prime component of a pitcher's base performance value (See BPV).
Benchmarks: Baseball's upper echelon of pitchers will have ratios in excess of 3.0. Pitchers with ratios under 1.0 -- indicating that they walk more batters than they strike out -- have low probability for long term success.
Cmd: Command Ratio
Defensive Average (DA)
A statistic similar to Zone Ratings, expressing a player's fielding performance as the number of plays made divided by opportunities. Preferred by some analysts, who claim that the zone assignments are more encompassing than those used for Zone Ratings.
Defensive Average was produced by Sherri Nichols using data derived from the former Baseball Workshop, now owned by Total Sports. Unfortunately, this rating has been available since 1997, and as such represents the first warning signal that the free flow of detailed statistical information may be coming to an end.
The number of innings that a player plays at a defensive position.
The number of a team's games that a player was responsible for on defense. This is computed by figuring out what portion of the team's defensive innings a player played at that position and then multiplying by the Defensive Responsibility assigned to the spot. For example, Cal Ripken plays all his team's defensive innings at shortstop. Shortstop's Defensive Responsibility is 11 games, so
is responsible, on defense alone, for 11 Cal wins and losses. See Defensive Responsibility. Baltimore
The number of a team's games that are won or lost at a defensive position. Shortstop defense, for example, accounts for about 11 games out of the 162 games in a team's season. See Defensive Spectrum.
Defensive Scouting Rating (DScout)
A slightly modified version of the defensive component of Bill James' Value Approximated Method. This number is added to the Offensive Scouting Rating to generate a player's Total Scouting Rating.
First coined by Bill James. A method of ranking defensive positions by how much of the defensive responsibility they take. That is, shortstops have a lot more defensive responsibility than first baseman do. The Defensive Spectrum goes, left to right:
Defensive Winning Percentage (DW%)
A number from .000 to 1.000 generated by taking a player's stats at a defensive position and finding their places in an elaborate system of charts devised by Bill James. Efforts to refine it include work undertaken by Jim Furtado and Charlie Saeger.
Defensive Wins Above Replacement (DWAR)
The defensive value of a player expressed in wins above replacement. For a walkthrough of the method, see "Tweaking DXW" in section five of BBBA 2000.
Earl Weaver Team
A team that emphasizes offense down the lines and defense up the middle and starting pitching, and that is willing to use platooning. Third base, where down-the-lines meets the need for infield defense, up the middle or no, is possibly the one most key position on an Earl Weaver team. Relief Closer is possibly the least key.
The term, of course, is named for Earl Weaver, who worked very hard to acquire and utilize this type of team. His idea of a third baseman was Brooks Robinson or Doug DeCinces.
Earned Runs Allowed (ER).
Earned Run Average (ERA). (ER/ IP) *(9)
QMAX term for the four leftmost and topmost sectors within the
Success Square, which produce aggregate team winning percentage above .800. See the QMAX appendix for further details.
ERA Variance: The variance between a pitcher's ERA and his XERA, which is a measure of over or underachievement. A positive variance indicates the potential for a pitcher's ERA to rise. A negative variance indicates the potential for ERA improvement. (See Expected Earned Run Average.)
Benchmarks: Discount variances that are under 0.50. Any variances over 1.00 (one run per game) are regarded as clear indicators of future change.
Equivalent Average (EQA)
Developed by John Clay Davenport and used as a centerpiece of the Baseball Prospectus, EQA is a value stat that is a contender to the mantle currently occupied by Runs Created and/or Linear Weights.
Its chief attraction is its translation into a scale approximating batting average, and its development was intended to help subvert the average fan away from that measure, which has been shown to be less revealing of a hitter's value that what prevailing opinion has claimed for most of baseball history.
Expected Earned Run Average (Gill and Reeve):
(.575 x H [per 9 IP]) + (.94 x HR [per 9 IP]) + (.28 x BB [per 9 IP]) - (.01 x K [per 9 IP]) - Normalizing Factor:
"XERA represents the expected ERA of the pitcher based on a normal distribution of his statistics. It is not influenced by situation-dependent factors." XERA erases the inequity between starters' and relievers' ERAs, eliminating the effect that a pitcher's success or failure has on another pitcher's ERA.
Similar to other gauges, the accuracy of this formula changes with the level of competition from one season to the next. The normalizing factor allows us to better approximate a pitcher's actual ERA. This value is usually somewhere around 2.77 and varies by league.
Benchmarks: In general, XERAs should approximate a pitcher's ERA fairly closely. However, those pitchers who have large variances between the two gauges are candidates for further analysis. (See ERA Potential.)
Extra-Base Average (XBA)
The percentage of total bases generated by a batter's extra-base. Derived by the formula:
Extrapolate (from Webster's New World College Dictionary)
1) Statistics To estimate or infer (a value, quantity, etc. beyond the known range) on the basis of certain variables within the know range, from which the estimated value is assumed to follow.
2) To arrive at (conclusions or results) by hypothesizing from know facts or observations.
3) To speculate as to consequences on the basis of (known facts or observations).
Extrapolated Average (XAVG)
An estimate of the number of runs a player, league, or team produced per total plate appearance. Derived by the formula: XR / TPA.
Extrapolated Runs (XR)
A method developed by Jim Furtado which extrapolates the number of runs produced for players, teams, or leagues from common offensive statistics. There are currently three versions of the formula. See Extrapolated Runs in the Appendix for details.
Extrapolated Runs per Game (XR/G)
An estimate of the number of runs scored by a team made up entirely of clones of a particular player.
Derived by the formula: XR/G = XR/Outs* 27
Extrapolated Offensive Winning Percentage (XOWP%)
An estimate of the winning percentage of an average team (both offensively and defensively), if an average player's production was replaced by particular player's production. See Extrapolated Offensive Winning Percentage
A whimsical tool invented to characterize a player's level of recognition, with the scale being 0 to 9, except Babe Ruth, whose index was 99. Discussed in the 1995 BBBA article "The Class of 95."
Don Malcolm's typically cheery term for the multitudes of baseball fans involved in "fantasy" and "Rotisserie(TM)" leagues, obtained by combining carefully selected portions of each term.
A tool Bill James developed in his Abstract days to predict the chance of a player reaching some career milestone. It requires four elements.
- Value Needed: The number of something required to reach the goal. For instance a batter with 2500 hits needs 500 to reach 3000.
- Years Remaining: Estimated by 24 - .6 * Age (during the off-season use the age from the previous season).
- Established Level: 3 x Current Year + 2 x Previous Year + Year before that, all divided by six.
- Projected Remaining Value: This is the second value (Years Remaining) times the third (Established level).
Now to determine the probability of reaching the goal, you take the Projected Remaining Value divide by Value Needed and subtract 0.5. Note that no probability should be greater than 0.97, and if a player's Offensive winning percentage is under .500 he should have no better than .75 chance per season required to meet the goal. So if it takes him two years, he can't have better than .75 x .75 chance of reaching the goal.
Fielding Average (FA). (A +
PO) / TC.
Pete Palmer's Linear Weights measure of runs saved beyond what a league-average player at that position might have saved.
Forecast Index: A measure of over or underachievement, used mostly during the season. It is expressed as the ratio of a player's current performance to his expected performance (as based on historical trends). Can be used with virtually any statistical category, but is most often used with BPIs.
An FX of 100 indicates that a player is performing exactly up to expectation. An FX between 80-120 represents performance that is within a reasonable range of expectation. Values under 80 indicate underachievement; values over 120 indicate overachievement. The further the FX is to 100, the higher the probability that a player will surge or fade to compensate.
Front -loaded lineup
A technique of lineup construction that eschews the traditional practice of putting a player with low isolated power in the #2 slot. Billy Martin was a key practitioner of this approach to lineup construction. Theorists who favor large-scale mathematical modeling deny that there is any justification for such a technique, but other studies indicate that front-loaded lineups can occasionally have unusually serendipitous results with respect to run scoring.
Games Played (G).
Games Won (W).
Games Lost (L).
A numerical value assigned to an individual start based on the number of innings pitched, hits allowed, walks given up, and strikeouts recorded. Invented by Bill James in the 1988 Baseball Abstract.
- Begin with 50.
- Add 1 point for each out recorded.
- Add 2 for each inning completed after the fourth.
- Add 1 point for each strikeout.
- Subtract 2 points for each hit given up.
- Subtract 4 for each earned run.
- Subtract 2 for each unearned run.
- Subtract 1 point for each walk.
Ground/Fly Ratio (G/F)
The ratio of ground-ball-to-fly-ball outs recorded by a pitcher. Also compiled for hitters. The league average is around 1.3 ground balls for every fly ball. An example of an extreme groundball pitcher is Greg Maddux, whose G/F was 3.04 in 1996; an example of a fly ball pitcher is David Cone, whose G/F was 0.77 in 1996.
Grounded into Doubleplays (GIDP).
Handed The Wafer
BBBA slang for a pitcher who is converted from one pitching role to another, primarily from starter to reliever. The irreverent reference to the Eucharist notwithstanding, a statistical study of pitcher role conversion is still awaiting its eager young sabermetrician. Also used in verb form--"wafered."
Hit Hard region (HH)
The region on the QMAX matrix where pitchers give up at least two more hits than innings pitched per individual start. The acronym for this region is either HH or S67.
Hits (H): 1B, 2B, 3B or HR.
Home Run (HR).
Performance Factors Home Park
Another term for Ballpark Adjustments (q.v.)
Iambic player development
A theory of hitter career progression propounded by Brock J. Hanke. A summary description, taken from his comment on Mets' second baseman Edgardo Alfonzo follows.
Those of you who have been reading these books for some time will recall that I refer to a concept called "iambic player development." The basic concept combines the following observations:
First, baseball is a game of adjustment and counter-adjustment. A hitter will have trouble with the curveball when he first enters the Major Leagues. The pitchers will find this out only during the course of the season, so that first season will look good. Then the pitchers will adjust over the offseason, and he'll see nothing but curves, and he'll have "Sophomore Slump." Over that second season, though, the hitter will get practice on the curve, so he'll hit better in the third season, while the pitchers find out that he's vulnerable to the inside changeup, and so on.
Second, most hitters--or at least a plurality--will have their best seasons at age 27. This observation is one of the old Bill James fundamentals. Most of the ones who don't will have them at age 26 or 28. This is my contribution.
Third, the on/off pattern is like the stressed/not stressed pattern of syllable emphasis that is called "iambic" in poetry analysis. That is, Sophomore Slump is the "unstressed" syllable in the "iambic" pattern.
Taken together, many many hitters have patterns of good year/bad year that end with a peak season at age 26, 27, or 28. The ones who have their peaks at age 27. I call "odd" iambics; the 26's and 28's, I call "even iambics."
Brock has estimated that a large plurality of hitters demonstrate this iambic pattern during their development years. An historical verification of this theory is underway.
Isolated Pitcher Winning Percentage (IsoPWP)
A purely theoretical calculation used to calculate Adjusted Pitcher Winning Percentage (PWP/A) and Pitcher Extrapolated Wins (PXW). The number is derived based on two premises: (1) The calculation of a pitcher's PythWP is a valid assumption that a average defense played behind the pitcher, and (2) Pitcher Defensive Responsibility and Pitcher Responsibly adequately represent a pitcher's dependence on defense. Based on these premises, I postulate that a pitcher's PythWP% can be broken down in the following manner:
PythWP = Pitcher Ability + Fielders' Abilities
Which can be re-written as:
PythWP = (IsoPWP%*PitResp) + (Average Defensive Winning Percentage*DefResp)
Therefore, using algebraic manipulation, we can then isolate a pitcher's portion of PythWP using the following formula:
IsoPWP% = (PythWP – (DefResp*DefWP)) / PitResp
Isolated Power (ISO)
The amount of non-singles contributed by a hitter; derived by the formula: SLG-BA. The historical average for Isolated Power is around .120, but it has been rising steadily in recent years and is near its all-time high at league level.
Isolated Power (ISO)
(Slugging Average - Batting Average)= (TB –H) / AB:
A BPI of a batter's raw power skills. By subtracting a player's BA from Slg, we are essentially pulling out all the singles and single bases from the formula. What remains are the extra bases. Iso measures the ratio of extra bases to AB. It is a better gauge than Slugging Average, but not as good as LW Power which weights extra base hits.
Benchmarks: The game's top sluggers will tend to have Iso levels over .200. Weak hitters will clock in under .100.
Nothing for now.
Nothing for now.
Leading Indicator: A statistical formula (often a base performance indicator) that can be used to project likely future performance.
Linear Weights Batting Runs (LWTS). (BR +BSR) = (.47)(1B) + (.78)(2B) +(1.09)(3B) +(1.40)(HR) + (.33)(BB+HP) – (.25)(AB-H) + (.30)(SB) –(.60)(CS) – (.50)(OOB)
A linear regression model of team run scoring developed by Pete Palmer; expanded to evaluate player performance in a book (co-authored by John Thorn) called The Hidden Game of Baseball.
Linear Weighted Power:
(((Doubles x .8) + (Triples x .8) + (Home runs x 1.4)) / At bats) x 365
An excerpt/variation of Pete Palmer's original linear weights formula that only considers events that are measures of a batter's raw power.
Benchmarks: Baseball's top sluggers usually top the 50 mark. Weak hitters will have a LWPwr level of under 20.
Linear Weighted Power Index
(Batter's LWPwr/League LWPwr) x 100
LWPwr is typically presented in its normalized form to get a better read on a batter's accomplishment in each year. For instance, a 30-HR season in 1996's high-offense campaign is not nearly as much of an accomplishment as 30 HRs hit in 1995. A level of 100 equals league average power skills. Any player with a value over 100 has above average power skills, and those over 175 are the slugging elite.
The placement of hitters within a lineup. Usually taken to mean evaluating whether a manager has his on-base men at the top of the lineup, and his power men behind them. The lineup slots over which there is the most arguing are 2nd and 6th. See Front-Loaded Lineup.
LWPwr: Linear Weighted Power.
Major League Equivalency (MLE) (James): A formula that converts a player's minor league statistics into a comparable performance in the major leagues. These are not projections, but rather conversions of current performance. Contains adjustments for the level of play in individual leagues and for ballpark effects in each minor league stadium. Works best with Triple-A stats, not quite as well with Double-A stats, and hardly at all with the lower levels. James' formula only addressed batting. Our research has devised a similar methodology for pitchers, however, its best use comes when looking at equivalent levels of BPIs, not traditional stat categories.
Modified Offensive Average (MOA). (TB +SB +BB+HP) / (AB +BB +HP)
Nothing for now.
OXW = (XOWP% - repXOWP%) * AvgTmG
Offensive Games (oG)
An estimate of the number of games which a player played on offense. Calculated by multiplying a player's PLAY% by the average number of team games played in the league.
Offensive Index (OINX)
An abstract statistical rate intended to correct for the double-weighting given to batting average in the runs created formula, derived by the formula: RC27/BA. An Offensive Index of 10 indicates a very weak hitter; an Offensive Index of 30 or more is a superstar. Often used in its normalized form (league=100) and displayed as a linear model of lineup construction.
Offensive Scouting Rating (OScout)
An offensive measure determined by calculating the probability (using Standard Deviations) that a player's offensive performance is different from what a Replacement Player's performance would be, given the same playing time. Calculated using park-adjusted eXtrapolated Runs per Out (aXR/Out) as the measure of performance, per Plate Appearance. See the Appendix for the complete calculation.
Offensive Winning Percentage (OWP%)
An estimate of a player's offensive prowess. The individualized, rate stat component of the Offensive eXtrapolated Win methodology. Calculated by dividing a player's eXtrapolated Wins by his offensive games.
Old Players' Skills
As defined by Bill James, old players' skills are walks, low batting average, lack of speed, high secondary average. Young players' possessing old players' skills are often considered to be candidates for swift and unexpected career declines. See Young Players' Skills.
On-Base Percentage (OBP)
The fraction of a player's plate appearances that result in his reaching base safely. Derived by the formula: (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF). Created by Branch Rickey in the early 50s in its present form, it had nineteenth-century predecessors, such as "Reached First Base." . An
OBof .350 can be read as "this batter gets on base 35% of the time." Why this is a more important gauge than batting average... When a run is scored, there is no distinction made as to how that runner reached base. So, two thirds of the time -- how often a batter comes to the plate with the bases empty -- a walk really is as good as a hit.
Benchmarks: We all know what a .300 hitter is, but what represents "good" for
OB? That comparable level would likely be .400, with .275 representing the level of futility.
On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS)
A reasonably accurate and easily calculated index of a hitter's rate of offensive production. Sometimes represented as OBP+SLG, as it combines those two basic offensive skills. : A simple sum of the two gauges, it is considered as one of the better evaluators of overall performance. OPS combines the two basic elements of offensive production -- the ability to get on base (
OB) and the ability to advance baserunners (Slg).
Benchmarks: The game's top batters will have OPS levels over .900. The worst batters will have levels under .600. The basis for the Adjusted Production (PRO+) measurement used in Total Baseball. See Adjusted Production, On-Base Percentage, Slugging Average.
Offensive Extrapolated Wins (OXW)
The offensive component of the Extrapolated Wins methodology: Derived by the formula:
See Defensive Extrapolated Wins, Extrapolated Wins, and Extrapolated Offensive Winning Percentage
An estimate of the number of outs for players, teams, or leagues. Calculated by:
Outs = AB-H+CS+GIDP+SF+SH.
Opposition Home Runs Per Game
(HR Allowed x 9 / IP):
Used in the BPV formula, it measures how many HRs a pitcher allows per game equivalent. Benchmarks: The best pitchers will have levels under 1.0.
Opposition On Base Average
(Hits Allowed + BB) / ((IP x 2.82) + H + BB):
A close approximation of the on base average achieved by opposing batters against a particular pitcher. Benchmarks: The best pitchers will have levels under .300; the worst pitchers levels over .375.
Opposition Strikeouts Per Game
(K Allowed x 9 / IP):
Measures how many Ks a pitcher allows per game equivalent. Benchmarks: The best pitchers will have levels of 6.0 or more.
Opposition Walks Per Game
(BB Allowed x 9 / IP):
Measures how many BBs a pitcher allows per game equivalent. Benchmarks: The best pitchers will have levels of 3.0 or less.
Overall Players Runs. (OPR). BR +BSR +FR +PR –ADSP. (Note: 10 runs equals approximately 1 win; also, Fielding or Defensive Runs (FR) and Average Defensive Skill at the position (ADSP) are defined in Total Baseball).
WPA measure for the highest possible amount of Win Probability Added that a pitcher can achieve in the innings he pitched. See WPA terminology appendix for more details.
Peak Projection System
A combination of two Bill James methods: Major League Equivalency and BROCK2. MLEs translate minor league hitting stats into what the hitter would likely have done if had played in the Majors. BROCK2 projects, from a sample of a player's hitting stats, what his future stats should look like. Peak Projections use MLEs as the fuel for BROCK2 and run BROCK2 out to Age 27, which is the peak year in the BROCK2 system.
The idea of Peak Projections is to give an idea of what the best year a minor league player would produce in the Majors would look like. This is most useful for determining whether he is really going to turn out to be a Major League player or not.
A career and single season player evaluation
Pitching Runs (LWPR)
A measure of how many runs a pitcher prevented compared to a league-average pitcher, with the average number of pitching runs set at zero. (IP)((League ERA) / 9 ) –ER OR (IP/9)(League ERA) –ERA).
The amount of difference between a hitter's performance against left-handed and right-handed pitchers; or for pitchers against left-handed and right-handed batters. The natural platoon advantage for hitters is left-right and right-left; the natural platoon advantage for pitchers is left-left and right-right.
Power Factor (PF). (SLG / BA) = TB / H.
Power Precipice (PP)
Stolen from Lord Acton's famous pronouncement. The Power Precipice is a region on the QMAX matrix box where pitchers demonstrate excellent hit prevention and below-average to poor walk prevention. See the QMAX glossary for more details.
WPA term for "P per partial innings". See WPA terminology appendix for more details.
A formula that predicts a team's won-loss percentage from its Runs Scored and Runs Allowed; developed by Bill James as a way of measuring the difference between a team's runs scored/runs allowed totals and their actual won-loss performance. See Pythagorean Winning Percentage.
Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWPCT)
The result of the Pythagorean method, a figure derived from the formula:
It is called "Pythagorean" because it, essentially, divides squares of numbers. James also devised a slightly more accurate version which uses an exponent of 1.83 instead of 2. This version of the formula is the one used in generating player's Extrapolated Wins totals. Here is the 1.83 formula:
Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PythWP)
Similar in concept to Expected Winning Percentage (EW%) in that the measure tries to estimate what a pitcher's winning percentage would be given average Run Support. Calculated by plugging a pitcher's Adjusted Opponent eXtrapolated Runs per Game (aOXR/G) into the Pythagorean Formula. Here's an example using Pedro Martinez's 1999 Season:
1999 Pedro aOXR/G = 2.05, 1999
average OXR/G = 5.20 AL
PWP% = ( 5.20^1.83 ) / (5.20^1.83 + 2.05^1.83) = .846
So Pedro Martinez, given average run support of a team in the 1999 American League and an average number of errors on defense, would be expected to win 84.6% of his games.
Quality Matrix (QMAX)
The Quality Matrix (QMAX) is a 7 x 7 bi-directional matrix that classifies individual starts by two quality measures: hit prevention (the vertical "stuff axis") and walk prevention (the horizontal "command axis"). A complete listing of terms used in the QMAX system can be found in the Appendix..
Quality Start (QS)
A start in which the pitcher pitches at least six innings and allows no more than three runs. The frequency of Quality Starts in 1996: 51% in the NL, 43% in the
. See Blown Start, Quality Start minus Blown Start Ratio. AL
Quality Start minus Blown Start Ratio (QmB)
A ratio created by Ken Adams to measure the relative effectiveness of a starting pitcher, derived from the formula: (number of Quality Starts - number of Blown Starts)/Games Started.
QMAX Winning Percentage (QWP)
The sum of each start's aggregate team winning percentage based on its location in the QMAX matrix divided by the number of starts. Produces a similar result as park-adjusted or support-neutralized won-loss simulations. See the QMAX appendix for additional details.
Range Factor (RF). (A +
PO) / G.
Relative Batting Average (RBA). BA / [H(league without) / AB(League without)
Relative Total Power Quotient (RTPQ). TPQ (indiv) / TPQ (other) . Where other can be team, league, etc.
Replacement player's Extrapolated Offensive Winning Percentage (repXOWP%)
An estimate of the winning percentage of an average team (both offensively and defensively), if an average player's production was replaced by a replacement player's production, given a particular player's playing time. See XOWP%, and Replacement Player. Also, see Extrapolated Offensive Winning Percentage in the Appendix.
Numerically, ".350". Bill James did the analysis, back in the 1980s. As a result of several studies, Bill decided that the best players in AAA ball, if put together in a team, would win about 35% of their games. That is, a top AAA player is about a .350 player. Well, a top AAA player is about what you get when your starter gets hurt. That is, the player who replaces a starter is about a .350 player. Our XR ranking system assumes a replacement player has win value of zero, since you win games by accumulating players better than that.
In the Appendix, we talk about how the replacement level is a mater of conjecture and what a .350 level means in practice when it comes to applying formulas. We also get into some mathematics to determine what an entire team of replacement players is really worth. But the bottom line is we have no improvement to offer over Bill's .350 figure.
Runs Created (RC)
A method, devised by Bill James, for taking a hitter's component singles, homers, double plays, etc., and figuring out how many of his team's runs he, personally, was responsible for. Derived from the basic formula:
One result of the algebra of the Basic RC formula is that the easiest way to measure a hitter's contribution on the fly is to compute OBP ((H+BB)/(AB+BB)) * SLG (TB/AB) *AB. That is, OBP*SLG give you a good approximation of a hitters RC per AB. It would be nice for that to be RC per Plate Appearance, but that's not how the algebra comes out. It's RC per AB.
Please note that, with a hand calculator, it is just as easy, and much more useful, to compute OBP*SLG than OBP+SLG.
Runs Created (James)
((H + BB - CS) x (Total bases + (.52 x SB) + (.26 x BB)) / (AB + BB):
A formula that converts all offensive events into a total of runs scored. As calculated for individual teams, the result approximates a club's actual run total with great accuracy.
Runs Created per Game (RC/G)
A derivation of Runs Created that generates a model of team run scoring per game, derived from the basic formula: (RC/Outs)*27. The result for an individual player estimates how many runs would be scored by a team if its lineup was comprised of nine players with the same offensive production. See Runs Created and Offensive Games.
Runs Created Per Game (James)
(Runs Created / ((AB - H + CS) / 25.5):
RC expressed on a per-game basis might be considered the hypothetical ERA compiled against a particular batter. Another way to look at it... a batter with a RC/G of 7.00 would be expected to score 7 runs per game if he were cloned 9 times and faced an average pitcher in every at bat. Cloning batters is not a practice we recommend.
Benchmarks: Only a few select players ever surpass the magical level of a 10.00 RC/G in any given season, but any level over 7.50 can still be considered very good. At the bottom of the scale are those who post RC/G levels under 3.00.
Runs of Support per Game (RS/G)
The average number of Runs that a team's hitters score in a game started by a pitcher. Runs Scored after the pitcher leaves count, as they affect his ability to get credited with the win.
Runs Tallied (RT). (R +RBI) / 2.
Run Element Ratio (RER)
The ratio between the things a hitter does which are of use early in the inning (walks and stolen bases) and those which are more useful later in the inning (power). Derived from the formula: (BB+SB)/(TB-H)
Runs Scored. ( R).
Rotisserie Value (R$): The dollar value placed on a player's performance in a rotisserie setting, and designed to measure the impact that player has on the standings in a rotisserie league. These values are highly variable depending upon a variety of factors. In other words, a $30 player is only a $30 player if
- players are selected via auction
- there is a 260-unit salary cap
- there are 12 teams in the league
- each team has a 23-man roster
- there are no freeze lists
- every other player is drafted at optimal value
Any variation in these factors will inflate or deflate a player's value. In addition, a player's value will also be affected by the stage of the draft you are in, the position and category demands when the player comes up for bid, and the prevailing winds of the media.
In other words, a $30 player is only a $30 player if someone in your draft pays $30 for him.
Runs Above Replacement: An estimate of the number of runs a player contributes above a "replacement level" player. "Replacement" is defined as the level of performance at which a player can easily be found at little or no cost to a team. What constitutes replacement level is a topic that is hotly debated. There are a variety of formulas and rules of thumb used to determine this level for each position (replacement level for a shortstop will be very different from replacement level for an outfielder).
One of the major values of RAR for fantasy applications is that it can be used to assemble an integrated ranking of batters and pitchers for drafting purposes.
Batters create runs; pitchers save runs. But are batters and pitchers who have comparable RAR levels truly equal in value? In fact, pitchers might be considered to have slightly higher value. Saving an additional run is more important than producing an additional run. How? A pitcher who throws a shutout is guaranteed to have his team win that game, whereas no matter how many runs a batter produces, his team is still at risk of losing given a poor pitching performance.
See Top hit prevention games.
See Hit Hard region.
Sacrifice Fly (SF).
Secondary Average (SECA, 2AVG)
The sum of a player's extra bases on hits, walks, and stolen bases expressed as a percentage of plate appearances. This measures the parts of a player's contribution that doesn't show up in his batting average.
Secondary Fielding Statistics
A series of statistics developed for second baseman, shortstops, and third baseman that measure ancillary elements of their defensive play. In addition to Range Factor, there are the following: Double Plays per Range (DPR), Double Plays per error (DPE), and Outs Above Average (OAA). Range Factor, DPR, and DPE are then normalized for presentation and are abbreviated NRN, NDPR, and NDPE, respectively. Appeared in BBBA from 1996-1999, and may make a comeback if Ken Adams ever gets off the road with Psycho.
Situation Independent: Describing a statistical gauge that measures an element of performance apart from the context of team, ballpark, or other outside variables. Home runs, inasmuch as they are unaffected by the performance of a batter's team, is often considered a situation independent stat (it is, however, affected by ballpark dimensions). Strikeouts and Walks are better examples. Conversely, RBIs are situation dependent because individual performance varies greatly by the performance of other batters on the team (you can't drive in runs if there is nobody on base). Similarly, pitching wins is as much a measure of the success of a pitcher as it is a measure of the success of the offense and defense performing behind that pitcher, and is therefore a poor measure of pitching performance alone. Situation independent gauges are important for us to be able to separate a player's contribution to his team and isolate his performance so that we may judge it on its own merits.
Slugging Average (SLG):
(Singles + (2 x Doubles) + (3 x Triples) + (4 x HR)) / AB:
A measure of the total number of bases accumulated (or the minimum number of runners' bases advanced) per at bat. It is a misnomer for several reasons. It is not a true measure of a batter's slugging ability because it includes singles (Iso corrects that problem). Slg also assumes that each type of hit has proportionately increasing value (i.e. a double is twice as valuable as a single, a HR is twice as valuable as a double, etc.) which is not true. For instance... with the bases loaded, a HR always scores 4 runs, a triple always scores 3, but a double could score 2 or 3 and a single could score 1 or 2 or, in rare circumstances, 3.
Benchmarks: The top 10%-15% of batters will have levels over .500. The bottom 5%-10% will have levels under .300.
Speed Score (James):
A measure of the various elements that comprise a runner's speed skills. Although this formula (a variation of James' original version) may be used as a leading indicator for stolen base output, the fact that SB attempts are controlled by managerial strategy makes Spd less valuable in that role. The speed scores on this site are calculated as the mean value of the following four elements...
- Stolen base efficiency = ((SB + 3)/(SB + CS + 7)) - .4) x 20
- Stolen base frequency = Square root of (SB + CS)/(Singles + BB) divided by .07
- Triples rating = (3B) / (AB - HR - K) / .0016
- Runs scored as a percentage of times on base = (((R - HR)/(H + BB - HR)) - .1) / .04
Speed Score Index
(Batter's Spd/League Spd) x 100
Spd is presented in the Baseball Forecaster in its normalized form to get a better read on a runner's accomplishment in each year. A level of 100 equals league average speed skills. Any player with a value over 100 has above average speed skills, and those over 150 are the fleet of feet elite.
Stolen Bases (SB).
(H + BB - ER) / (H + BB - HR)
This represents the percentage of allowed runners a pitcher strands. It is not a clean measure of an individual pitcher's raw skill because it is highly impacted by the effectiveness of the bullpen.
Benchmarks: The most adept at stranding runners will have S% levels over 75%. Once a pitcher's S% starts dropping down below 70%, he's going to have problems with his ERA.
QMAX term for hit prevention, as measured by the formula H-IP. See the QMAX appendix for more details. Abbreviated "S".
SX: Speed Score Index
Taking back the wafer
BBBA slang for a pitcher originally converted from a starter to reliever but is being converted back to a starter. Verb form: "unwafered". See Handed the Wafer.
Three True Outcomes
Term credited to Rob Deer cultists and referring to the events of an at-bat that results in the ball not being put into play--home runs, strikeouts, walks.
Tommy John percentage (TJ%)
QMAX term measuring the percentage of a pitcher's starts that occupy the 4,1-7,2 regions on the QMAX matrix box.
Total Average (TA). (TB +SB +BB +HP) / (AB –H +CS +GIDP).
Total Bases (TB). 1(1B) +2(2B) + 3(3B) + 4(HR)
The new official encyclopedia of baseball, currently in its fifth edition (with data through the 1994 season). Also available on the Internet at http://www.totalbaseball.com/.
Total Chances (TC). A+
Total Plate Appearances (TPA)
Calculated for teams, leagues, and players by the following formula:
TPA = AB + TBB + HBP + SH + SF
Total Power Quotient (TPQ). (HR + TB+RBI) / AB
Total Scouting Rating (TScout)
For Batters, the sum of Offensive Scouting Rating (OScout) and Defensive Scouting Rating (DScout). For pitchers, Pitcher Scouting Rating only (calculated using the same formula as Batter, except using opponents batting).
Total eXtrapolated Wins (TXW)
The sum of OXW and DXW, producing the total value of a player over replacement level.
Total eXtrapolated Winning Percentage (TXW%)
The TXW measure expressed in the form of a winning percentage.
Trade Value (TVal)
An estimate of the future remaining value of a player. This number is derived using a slightly modified version of Bill James' Reservoir Estimation Technique (or Trade Value). Unlike James' Trade Value, which used his Approximate Value calculation, TScout is used as the base rating. The complete formula can be found in the Appendix.
Nothing for now.
Nothing for now.
BBBA slang, short for "handed the wafer". Refers to a pitcher who is converted from one role to another, primarily from starter to reliever.
Winning Percentage (PCT) = W/(W+L)
Win Probability Added (WPA)
Abbreviated WPA. Doug Drinen's coinage for his method, derived from the work of Eldon and Harlan Mills, which calculates the value of a pitcher's performance from situational data. WPA is expressed in wins: for example, a WPA of 8.1 would mean that a pitcher contributed about 8 wins to his team from the "win value sum" of every inning completed.
The measure is used primary for relievers in BBBA, and the WPA leaders list can be found in the relief pitcher areas within the Player Comments section. See the WPA appendix for more information.
Weighted Pitcher's Rating (WPR). (PCT – PCT(Team/w.o.))(IP)
See Extra-Base Average.
See Extra-Base Percentage.
Young Players' Skills
As defined by Bill James, "young player's skills" are essentially speed, high batting average and lower than average walk rates. See Old Players' Skills.
A fielding evaluation tool implemented by STATS, Inc. to measure a player's effectiveness in fielding grounders and fly balls within an assigned zone.
Similar in concept to Defensive Average, though the zones used are smaller and do not contain overlapping regions.
A problem with Zone Ratings exists with respect to infielders, where outs involved in double plays are counted twice for each infielder, thus inflating the percentage. Thus for shortstops and second basemen the Zone Rating is not an empirical measure of actual fielding proficiency, but a hybrid stat that mixes apples and oranges.
Original source: link
Links to all the Cardinals news you'll need today…