2011 Top Cardinals Prospects: The Final Tally

Pulling all the votes together on the St. Louis Cardinals’ top minor league prospects for 2011.

As our yearly 40 Days, 40 Nights, 40 Prospects series nears its close, this article brings together the voting of the three participants from The Cardinal Nation, Dustin Mattison (DM), me - Brian Walton (BW) and the members of our Scout.com St. Louis Cardinals message board community (Cm)*.

* (Cm) represents the collaborative effort among a group of very knowledgeable Cardinals fans from our Message Board. While that group ranked 50 players, not 40, I limited their list in this article to 40 for consistency. Click here to see the entire community list and their reasoning behind it.

The far left column of the table below is the aggregate ranking. To the right of the players’ names are our individual votes. (Note that we each ranked 45 players to ensure we had at least two votes for each of the group’s top 40.) Next are the 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007 and 2006 rankings of the players in the new 2011 Top 40.

Rk	Group	DM	BW	Cm		10	09	08	07	06
1	Shelby Miller	1	1	1		2	NA	NA	NA	NA
2	Zack Cox	2	2	2		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
3	Lance Lynn	4	3	4		3	18	NA	NA	NA
4	Eduardo Sanchez	5	4	3		6	NR	NR	NR	NA
5	Carlos Martinez	3	7	9		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
6	Matt Carpenter	7	8	5		NR	NA	NA	NA	NA
7	Allen Craig	6	9	10		7	14	11	NR	NA
8	Daniel Descalso	13	10	7		10	NR	NR	NA	NA
9	Tyrell Jenkins	19	6	6		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
10	Seth Blair	8	11	13		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
11	Oscar Taveras	23	5	8		NR	NA	NA	NA	NA
12	Bryan Anderson	15	12	12		13	3	2	4	9
13	Adam Reifer	14	13	14		20	22	NR	NA	NA
14	Fernando Salas	12	15	17		28	24	NR	NA	NA
15	Adron Chambers	17	18	18		29	NR	NR	NA	NA
16	Tony Cruz	9	16	29		NR	NR	NR	NA	NA
17	Pete Kozma	24	14	16		14	12	16	NA	NA
18	Deryk Hooker	10	23	23		NR	27	32	NA	NA
19	Tommy Pham	11	26	19		40	NR	NR	39	NA
20	Mark Hamilton	29	17	11		19	NR	12	18	NA
21	Nick Longmire	21	24	20		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
22	Aaron Luna	28	21	21		24	NR	NA	NA	NA
23	David Kopp	25	22	26		NR	NR	36	NA	NA
24	Jordan Swagerty	22	25	32		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
25	P.J. Walters	NR	19	15		16	23	10	NR	NA
26	Cody Stanley	27	29	28		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
27	Joe Kelly	18	34	33		32	NA	NA	NA	NA
28	John Gast	16	33	37		NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
29	Anthony Garcia	42	20	24		NR	NA	NA	NA	NA
30	Rainel Rosario	32	28	30		NR	NR	NR	NR	NA
31	Steven Hill	26	NR	22		26	29	40	NA	NA
32	Adam Ottavino	35	32	27		11	13	5	5	NA
33	Matt Adams	NR	27	25		38	NA	NA	NA	NA
34	Ryan Jackson	20	NR	38		35	NA	NA	NA	NA
35	Francisco Samuel	33	36	35		22	19	NR	NR	NA
36	Tyler Henley	NR	31	36		17	NR	NR	NA	NA
37	Daryl Jones	37	45	31		5	5	NR	17	NR
38	Bryan Martinez	45	35	34		NR	NA	NA	NA	NA
39	Robert Stock	31	38	NR		9	NA	NA	NA	NA
40	Niko Vasquez	36	40	40		34	16	NA	NA	NA
Rk		DM	BW	Cm		10	09	08	07	06
	NA=not applicable
	NR=not ranked

Summarizing the numbers

There was considerable turnover on the 2011 top 40, with 40 percent change from 2010. Of the 16 players that left the list, five graduated to St. Louis, while 11 dropped off. The departing individuals are listed below with their rankings over the previous five years.

Graduated	10	09	08	07	06
Jaime Garcia	1	9	3	3	36
David Freese	4	6	13a	NA	NA
Blake Hawksworth	8	NR	23	2	28
Jon Jay	12	10	19	9	NA
Tyler Greene	15	17	17	16	8
Dropped off	10	09	08	07	06
Richard Castillo	18	15	NR	NA	NA
Scott Bittle	21	NA	NA	NA	NA
Nick Additon	23	21	NR	NR	NA
Roberto De La Cruz	25	35	NA	NA	NA
Arquimedes Nieto	27	38	NR	NA	NA
Kyle Conley	30	NA	NA	NA	NA
Casey Mulligan	31	NR	NR	NR	NA
Anthony Ferrara	33	NR	NA	NA	NA
Scott Gorgen	36	26	NA	NA	NA
Scott Schneider	37	NA	NA	NA	NA
Michael Swinson	39	NR	NA	NA	NA

Incredible to me is that half of the new top ten is made up of players not ranked one year ago. Three were from the 2010 draft class, one was an international signee and the other was the system’s Player of the Year, Matt Carpenter.

Overall, for the second consecutive year, a full one-fifth of the list, eight players, make their initial appearance in their first year of eligibility. Seven are new draftees into the organization with that Latin American addition, Carlos Martinez.

Continuing the high level of turnover on the top 40, another six players previously in the organization made the list for the first time. Two others, Deryk Hooker and David Kopp, returned to the top 40 after missing out in 2010.

New members	Top ten	11-40	Total
2010 Drafted	3	4	7
2010 Signed	1	0	1
1st Timers	1	5	6
Returning	0	2	2
Total	5	11	16

The traditional positional split had been in favor of pitching, but this year continued its annual erosion to the point position players now are in their greatest majority since we started these lists, 23 to 17. Of the 23 non-pitchers, up from 21 the year prior, eight are infielders, a whopping six are catchers, doubling last year and another nine are outfielders, same as in 2010.

Yet pitching remains dominant at the very top of the list as three of our top five-ranked prospects are pitchers, down from four of the top six one year ago.

Of the 17 hurlers on the list, five are relievers while only 12 are starters, the smallest number since we began ranking. In a further erosion of a major problem area, just one is left-handed, the worst showing by portsiders ever. A deeper dive into the numbers will be provided in the final article in this series.

Movers and shakers

Top debut – Zack Cox - #2
(next – Carlos Martinez - #5)

Not surprisingly, the Cardinals’ first-rounder debuted at #2, but was surprising is that the same thing happened for the third consecutive year, with Shelby Miller and Brett Wallace before him also coming in at second their first years in the system.

Cox is a player to watch very closely this year with a major league contract and an advanced bat along with a shaky situation at third base in St. Louis. The 19-year-old Dominican sensation Carlos Martinez opened at #5.

Fastest riser – Matt Carpenter – non-ranked to #6
(next – Oscar Taveras - NR to #11 and Tony Cruz – NR to #16)

As mentioned above, all Carpenter did in 2010 was put together the top season by a position player in the system despite not even reaching the top 40 coming into the season. That is a good reminder of how difficult the projection process can be. Neither Taveras nor Cruz was previously ranked. The catcher made the top 40 (in fact the top 16) for the first time in his fourth year in the organization, an unusual feat.

Biggest fall – Daryl Jones - #5 to #37
(next – Richard Castillo - #18 to out of the top 40)

The long and hard fall of the organization’s 2008 Player of the Year in Jones continued with another disappointing season at Double-A Springfield. The fall brought his removal from the 40-man roster with no takers in the Rule 5 draft. In his second full-season (and third partial season) with Palm Beach, 21-year-old Richard Castillo regressed, but there is still time.



To reference our entire list of top 40 Cardinals prospects for 2011 and read about each individual player, click here. You can also learn more about each of the voters’ philosophies in making their selections and much more.

Next up: This article series continues as the voters highlight the players on our personal lists that did not make the 2011 combined top 40. We move on to our All-Prospect Team, the highest-ranked players at each position, a dive into the numbers behind the top 40 and finally a look at the best and worst picks from the 2010 top 40.



There's more! Want access to the all details behind our Cardinals prospect rankings in our “Forty Days, Forty Nights, Forty Prospects” feature here at The Cardinal Nation?

Subscribe by January 21 to our annual pass and receive in the spring the 2011 FOX Fantasy Guide / Scout Prospect Guide, the perfect hardcopy companion to “Forty Days”, including the top prospects from all 30 MLB organizations and much more. We author the Cardinals section of the guide as always.



Brian Walton can be reached via email at [e-mail]. Also catch his Cardinals commentary daily at The Cardinal Nation blog. Follow Brian on Twitter.

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